PG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PG Report Core EPS (FQ4'26) IN-LINE pred ~$1.43 vs. cons $1.42 MEDIUM
PG Report Organic sales growth (FQ4'26) IN-LINE pred ~2.3% vs. cons 2.1% MEDIUM
PG Report Core gross margin (FQ4'26) MISS pred ~48.0% vs. cons 48.4% LOW
PG Guide FY27 core EPS growth guide (the swing factor) LOWER guide ~+2-4% (~$7.00-7.15) vs. cons ~+6% (~$7.25) (FY27) MEDIUM
PG Guide FY27 organic sales growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~3-4% vs. cons ~3.5% (FY27) MEDIUM
PG Guide Updated after-tax cost/oil headwind framing UNKNOWN guide ~$0.7-1.0B vs. cons prior ~$1.0B at $100 Brent (FY27) LOW
PG Guide FY26 core EPS (full-year landing) UNCHANGED guide ~$6.86 vs. cons ~$6.88, low end of $6.83-7.09 (FY26) MEDIUM
PG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
PG Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q4 print is roughly in-line but the make-or-break FY27 EPS guide likely lands below the ~+6% consensus as the ~$1B after-tax cost wave carries into FY27 and productivity 'won't be sufficient' to fully offset. That triggers downward FY27 estimate revisions (implicit cuts) that compound the initial drop; defensive-staple support and subdued positioning cap but don't reverse it, so the negative day-1 move follows through rather than fades. MEDIUM