{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core EPS (FQ4'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.43 vs. cons $1.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic sales growth (FQ4'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.3% vs. cons 2.1%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Core gross margin (FQ4'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~48.0% vs. cons 48.4%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 core EPS growth guide (the swing factor)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~+2-4% (~$7.00-7.15) vs. cons ~+6% (~$7.25) (FY27)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 organic sales growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3-4% vs. cons ~3.5% (FY27)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Updated after-tax cost/oil headwind framing",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.7-1.0B vs. cons prior ~$1.0B at $100 Brent (FY27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 core EPS (full-year landing)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.86 vs. cons ~$6.88, low end of $6.83-7.09 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q4 print is roughly in-line but the make-or-break FY27 EPS guide likely lands below the ~+6% consensus as the ~$1B after-tax cost wave carries into FY27 and productivity 'won't be sufficient' to fully offset. That triggers downward FY27 estimate revisions (implicit cuts) that compound the initial drop; defensive-staple support and subdued positioning cap but don't reverse it, so the negative day-1 move follows through rather than fades.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}