| PG |
Report |
Core EPS (Q4 FY26) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.38 vs. cons $1.41-1.42 |
MEDIUM |
| PG |
Report |
Organic Sales Growth (Q4 FY26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~2.0% vs. cons 2.1% |
MEDIUM |
| PG |
Report |
Gross Margin (Q4 FY26) |
MISS |
pred ~47.7% vs. cons 48.4% |
MEDIUM |
| PG |
Guide |
FY2027 Core EPS (initial guide) |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.15-7.25 vs. cons $7.05 (FY2027) |
LOW |
| PG |
Guide |
FY2027 Organic Sales Growth (initial guide) |
BETTER |
guide ~3-5% (mid ~4%) vs. cons ~3% (FY2027) |
LOW |
| PG |
Guide |
FY2027 Tariff/Commodity Headwind |
BETTER |
guide ~$300-350M pretax vs. cons/prior-year run-rate ~$500M (FY2027) |
LOW |
| PG |
Guide |
Cash Return to Shareowners (FY2027) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$15B (≈$10B div + ~$5B buyback) vs. cons ~$15B (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| PG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.3% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Q4 core EPS/margin likely lands at the low end of the pre-flagged range (already partly priced given the stock's YTD underperformance), so the initial reaction should be muted-to-modestly negative. But the real swing factor is the first FY27 algorithm: if management's implied EPS growth (~consensus $7.05, +2-3%) leans on restructuring savings and tariff relief that haven't yet been proven out (commodity/logistics costs from the Middle East conflict were concentrated in Q4 and could linger), sell-side models likely get trimmed over the following days as analysts stress-test the bridge, extending the initial move rather than reversing it. Low starting expectations limit upside surprise potential, so the path of least resistance after a soft print is continued drift lower as numbers get revised. |
LOW |