{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core EPS (Q4 FY26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.38 vs. cons $1.41-1.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic Sales Growth (Q4 FY26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.0% vs. cons 2.1%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross Margin (Q4 FY26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~47.7% vs. cons 48.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2027 Core EPS (initial guide)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.15-7.25 vs. cons $7.05 (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2027 Organic Sales Growth (initial guide)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3-5% (mid ~4%) vs. cons ~3% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2027 Tariff/Commodity Headwind",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-350M pretax vs. cons/prior-year run-rate ~$500M (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cash Return to Shareowners (FY2027)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$15B (\u2248$10B div + ~$5B buyback) vs. cons ~$15B (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.3,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q4 core EPS/margin likely lands at the low end of the pre-flagged range (already partly priced given the stock's YTD underperformance), so the initial reaction should be muted-to-modestly negative. But the real swing factor is the first FY27 algorithm: if management's implied EPS growth (~consensus $7.05, +2-3%) leans on restructuring savings and tariff relief that haven't yet been proven out (commodity/logistics costs from the Middle East conflict were concentrated in Q4 and could linger), sell-side models likely get trimmed over the following days as analysts stress-test the bridge, extending the initial move rather than reversing it. Low starting expectations limit upside surprise potential, so the path of least resistance after a soft print is continued drift lower as numbers get revised.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}