{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adj. EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.12 vs. cons ~$1.12",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$930M vs. cons ~$930M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adj. Operating Income / ROS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$235M (~25% ROS) vs. cons ~$235M (~25%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adj. EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.60\u20134.80 (mid $4.70) vs. cons ~$4.70 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Sales growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~ -4% to -7% (mid ~-5.5%) vs. cons ~-5.5% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying (ex-IEEPA) EPS run-rate",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.70 incl. $35\u201350M IEEPA refunds vs. cons ~$4.70 not fully stripping ~$0.20\u20130.25 one-timer (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2027 Pool recovery / destock-vs-demand framing",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide 2027 'return to normalized' ~$250M FY Pool headwind reversing vs. cons no explicit 2027 number yet (FY27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital allocation / buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$350M YTD repurchased, room to accelerate vs. cons ~$300\u2013350M FY (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline Q2 and FY guide are fully pre-announced (7/14) so the print itself is a non-event and consensus has already reset \u2014 a de-risked, beaten-down (~40% YTD, ~16% since warning) name with Dividend-King buyback support can see a small day-1 relief pop if the call frames a credible 2027 Pool recovery. But out-period math cuts against it: FY26 EPS of ~$4.70 leans on $35\u201350M of one-time IEEPA refunds, so the true ex-refund run-rate is worse and 2027 Street numbers still have to come down; combined with a fresh credibility gap (missed own 11-week-old guide, CFO exit) analysts keep trimming, so an initial bounce fades over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}