PPG Industries (PPG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Ticker: PPG Upcoming Earnings Date: July 28, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 Prepared: July 28, 2026

Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is a modest bar with consensus expecting flat-to-low-single-digit organic growth and EPS roughly in line with a year ago, but the key swing factor is whether pricing realization is outpacing the mid-single-digit raw material cost headwind faster than the market expects.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar is intentionally modest: consensus Adj. EPS of ~$2.24 implies just +0.9% growth vs. the prior-year $2.22, and organic sales growth of ~+2.0% sits squarely within management's guided range of flat to positive low single digits. Management's tone on the Q1 call was cautiously optimistic — the company reaffirmed its FY2026 EPS guidance of $7.70–$8.10 and expressed confidence in H2 acceleration driven by Refinish normalization, European architectural restructuring savings, and continued Aerospace growth, while acknowledging the new geopolitical-driven raw material inflation cycle as a near-term headwind. Estimate revisions have been remarkably stable since Q1 earnings (Q2 EPS consensus ~$2.247 on May 5 vs. ~$2.244 today), suggesting the Street has fully digested guidance with no meaningful revision risk embedded in either direction. The stock has outperformed both XLB and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, up ~10% vs. XLB flat and SPY +3.8%, with the Bank of America upgrade to Buy on July 17 acting as a sentiment catalyst — some optimism is already priced in. The single biggest wildcard is the pace of pricing realization vs. the mid-single-digit COGS headwind: if PPG can demonstrate that low-single-digit pricing is landing faster than the market expects — as peers Axalta and Sherwin-Williams have signaled — segment EBITDA margins could surprise positively and drive a meaningful re-rating.

KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a modest bar — flat-to-low-single-digit organic growth and EPS roughly in line with prior year — with segment EBITDA margin the bigger swing factor given the raw material cost cycle and the pace of pricing realization.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q2 2026 Consensus as of July 28, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Net Sales

PPG has beaten on Net Sales in 3 of the last 4 reported quarters with consensus data available, with beat magnitude accelerating from +0.5% in Q2 2025 to +3.6% in Q4 2025 and +2.7% in Q1 2026.

Adj. EPS (Diluted Operating)

PPG has beaten on Adj. EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters with consensus data available; the only miss was Q4 2025 (-3.8%), with a strong recovery to a +4.0% beat in Q1 2026.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since Q1 earnings — management reaffirmed FY2026 EPS of $7.70–$8.10 and Q2 organic growth of flat to positive low single digits — but tone has shifted to cautiously optimistic on Refinish recovery tracking ahead of schedule.

Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since Q1 earnings, with Q2 2026 EPS consensus essentially flat at ~$2.24 vs. the ~$2.25 post-print baseline — suggesting the Street has fully digested guidance with no meaningful revision risk embedded. The lack of upward revision despite Refinish recovery tracking ahead of schedule could represent a source of upside surprise.

Estimates have been remarkably stable since Q1 earnings, with virtually no revision in either direction — a sign the Street has fully priced in management’s guidance. The lack of upward revision despite Refinish recovery tracking ahead of schedule could represent a source of upside surprise if pricing realization exceeds the low-single-digit target.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. May 5, 2026 baseline = 5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings (Apr 28, 2026).

Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: PPG has outperformed both the Materials sector (XLB) and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, up ~10% vs. XLB flat and SPY +3.8%, driven by a combination of multiple re-rating and improving sentiment on Refinish recovery — suggesting some optimism is already priced in heading into Q2.

PPG vs. XLB (Materials ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 28, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

PPG closed at $107.68 on April 28, 2026 (Q1 earnings day) and has since risen to $118.47 as of July 28, 2026, a gain of +10.0% vs. XLB flat (+0.0%) and SPY +3.8%. The outperformance appears driven by improving sentiment on Refinish normalization and the Bank of America upgrade to Buy on July 17 (PT raised to $134). The stock peaked at ~$123 in late June before pulling back modestly. XLB has been essentially flat over the period, confirming that PPG’s outperformance is company-specific rather than sector-driven. Sector ETF used: XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund), which is the appropriate benchmark for PPG’s specialty chemicals and coatings sub-sector.

Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for PPG’s Q2 setup — Refinish destocking is abating across the industry, raw material inflation is real but manageable with pricing, and architectural/construction end markets show pockets of strength.

Note: Commentary below is sourced from peers’ Q1 2026 earnings calls (April 2026), RPM’s Q4 FY2026 earnings call (July 22, 2026), and Dow’s Q2 2026 earnings call (July 23, 2026). Only forward-looking commentary about Q2 2026 or the current operating environment is included — backward-looking Q1 results commentary is excluded.

A. Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 30, 2026)

Relevance: Direct peer in Refinish and Industrial Coatings; most comparable business mix to PPG’s Performance Coatings segment.

• Refinish Destocking Abating — H2 Recovery Planned: Axalta noted “signs of a more stable market as destocking trends are abating and claims activity is sequentially expected to improve.” Auto insurance premiums have “moderated meaningfully,” used vehicle prices are rising, and miles driven are “trending favorably.” The company is “planning for second half volumes to improve compared to last year.” PPG Read-Through: Corroborates PPG’s own Refinish recovery narrative; industry-wide destocking appears to be ending, supporting PPG’s H2 volume growth expectation.
• Raw Material Inflation — Low Single Digits in Q2, Escalating to High Single Digits in H2: Axalta guided Q2 raw material inflation impact to be “low single digits” with the impact “increasing through the back half of the year,” potentially reaching “high single digits.” The company has ~60% of direct spend under contract. PPG Read-Through: Consistent with PPG’s mid-single-digit COGS headwind guidance; Axalta’s lower Q2 impact may reflect PPG’s higher exposure to geopolitical disruption routes.
• Pricing Inflecting Positively in Q2: Axalta expects “price/mix will inflect positively beginning in the second quarter and carry on through the rest of the year.” Mid-single-digit pricing expected in Refinish for 2026. PPG Read-Through: Positive signal that pricing is gaining traction across the industry in Q2, supporting PPG’s ability to realize low-single-digit pricing to offset cost inflation.
• Industrial Coatings — Cautious Recovery, North America Soft: Axalta sees “signs of recovery” in Industrial but remains “cautious about the pace and timing of recovery in North America this year.” Full-year Industrial expected to be “flattish on a year-over-year basis.” PPG Read-Through: Tempers expectations for PPG’s Industrial segment recovery; North American industrial demand remains soft.
• Mobility/Auto OEM — Global Production Revised Down to 91M Builds: Axalta revised global auto production assumption to ~91 million builds (from 92M). China sales declined “in line with lower auto production.” PPG Read-Through: Consistent with PPG’s Industrial Coatings headwind from China auto production; confirms the China OEM drag is industry-wide.

B. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 28, 2026)

Relevance: Largest architectural coatings peer globally; strong read-through on architectural demand, pricing dynamics, and raw material cost trajectory.

• Raw Material Inflation Escalating Through Q2 and H2 — Propylene Up ~50%: SHW increased its full-year raw material inflation outlook to “low to mid-single digits,” with costs expected to impact the P&L “more materially as we move through the second quarter and into the second half.” Propylene (75% of SHW’s basket) is forecast up ~50% for the rest of 2026 due to Middle East disruptions. PPG Read-Through: Validates PPG’s mid-single-digit COGS headwind; propylene is a key input for both companies. The escalating trajectory through H2 is a risk to PPG’s FY guidance if pricing realization lags.
• Pricing Effectiveness Better Than Expected — More Than Twice Original Plan: SHW’s January price increase is trending “slightly better than expected,” with consolidated price/mix now expected at the “high end of our low single-digit range.” The company now has “more than twice the pricing” in its new guide vs. original January guidance. PPG Read-Through: Positive signal that pricing is sticking in architectural markets; supports PPG’s ability to realize low-single-digit pricing in its Global Architectural Coatings segment.
• Demand Softness Persists — Volumes Revised to Low Single-Digit Decline: SHW now expects volumes to be “a little more muted,” potentially declining “low single digits” for the full year (vs. original expectation of low single-digit growth), reflecting demand impact from inflation. Consumer sentiment at “lowest level on record, even going back to GFC and COVID.” New residential construction remains “very challenging.” PPG Read-Through: Tempers expectations for PPG’s architectural volume recovery; demand headwinds from housing and consumer sentiment are real.
• Architectural Bright Spots — Residential Repaint and Protective & Marine: Paint Stores Group grew mid-single digits in Q1, with residential repaint returning to “mid-single-digit growth” and commercial up “mid-single digits.” Protective & Marine up double digits for the seventh straight quarter. PPG Read-Through: Positive for PPG’s Performance Coatings (Protective & Marine) and Latin America architectural segments, which have been outperforming.
• Gross Margins Expected to Improve Sequentially in Q2 (Seasonal Tailwind): SHW noted “you should expect us to see improved gross margins as we go into the spring and summer selling season.” PPG Read-Through: Seasonal tailwind for Q2 margins is consistent with PPG’s sequential improvement expectation.

C. RPM International — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (July 22, 2026)

Relevance: Most recent peer print (July 22, 2026); construction coatings and specialty products. RPM’s Q4 FY2026 covers March–May 2026 (calendar Q2 2026 overlap), making this the most timely read-through available.

• Raw Material Inflation Accelerating — 5-6% in Q1 FY2027, Up to 6-8% in Q2 FY2027: RPM guided Q1 FY2027 (June–August 2026) raw material inflation of “5 to 6%” and Q2 FY2027 (September–November 2026) inflation “could be as high as 6 to 8%.” A fire at a supplier’s plant has caused tightness in propylene oxide-derived raw materials in North America; MDI supplies also tight. PPG Read-Through: Confirms the raw material inflation cycle is real and escalating — a headwind for PPG’s H2 2026 margins if pricing realization lags. The propylene oxide tightness is directly relevant to PPG’s coatings formulations.
• Pricing Up ~2% in Q4; Further Increases Planned for Summer — Price-Cost Negative Near-Term: RPM’s Q4 pricing was up ~2%, with “further price increases over the summer” expected. Price-cost mix was “slightly favorable” in Q4 but expected to be “somewhat negative in the first half” of FY2027. PPG Read-Through: Industry pricing is moving but lagging cost inflation in the near term — consistent with PPG’s guidance that pricing realization will take time to fully offset the mid-single-digit COGS headwind.
• Construction End Markets — Strong for High-Performance Buildings, Weak Underlying: RPM’s Construction Products Group achieved record sales driven by “roofing and wall systems for high-performance buildings such as data centers and infrastructure projects.” However, “underlying commercial construction continues to be weak.” Consumer/DIY end markets “hitting bottom” after two years of declines. PPG Read-Through: Mixed signal for PPG’s architectural and protective/marine segments — infrastructure and data center-adjacent demand is strong, but broad commercial construction and DIY remain soft.
• Backlogs Remain Strong in CPG and PCG — Low to Mid-Single-Digit Volume Growth: RPM noted “backlogs remain strong across both CPG and PCG,” with unit volume growth in the “low to mid-single digits.” PPG Read-Through: Positive for PPG’s Protective & Marine and Traffic Solutions businesses, which serve similar infrastructure end markets.
• FY2027 Outlook — Sales +3-7%, EBITDA +5-10%: RPM guided FY2027 (June 2026–May 2027) sales growth of 3–7% and EBITDA growth of 5–10%, assuming current raw material costs remain stable. PPG Read-Through: Constructive industry backdrop for the second half of 2026 and into 2027, consistent with PPG’s H2 acceleration thesis.

D. Dow Inc. (DOW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 23, 2026)

Relevance: Key raw material supplier; acrylic monomers and silicones are inputs to coatings. Dow’s Q2 2026 results (reported July 23) provide the most timely macro and raw material read-through available.

• Architectural Coatings Demand Improving in Q2 — Acrylic Monomers Up: Dow’s Performance Materials & Coatings segment saw “improvements in acrylic monomers and architectural coatings” in Q2 2026, with net sales up 11% YoY. PPG Read-Through: Positive demand signal for architectural coatings end markets in Q2 — Dow’s acrylic monomer volumes are a leading indicator for paint demand.
• Building & Construction Fundamentals Still Weak: Dow noted “fundamentals in building and construction are still pretty weak overall,” with normal seasonal declines expected in Q3. PPG Read-Through: Tempers expectations for PPG’s architectural volume recovery in Europe and North America; broad construction demand remains challenged.
• Q3 Seasonal Slowdown in Coatings Demand Expected: Dow guided Q3 Performance Materials & Coatings to see “typical seasonal slowdown in coatings demand.” PPG Read-Through: Consistent with normal seasonality; Q2 is typically PPG’s strongest quarter, and Q3 should see sequential moderation.
• EV/Mobility Demand Strong — Double-Digit Growth: Dow cited “double digit growth in EVs” and is gaining market share in silicones for mobility applications across Europe and Asia. PPG Read-Through: Positive for PPG’s automotive OEM coatings business, particularly in Europe and Asia where EV adoption is accelerating.

Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most material development since Q1 earnings is the CFO transition (Jamie Beggs effective July 6), which introduces modest execution risk but is offset by the Bank of America upgrade and improving Refinish data points.

• July 6, 2026 (effective) — CFO Transition: Jamie Beggs (former Avient CFO) officially succeeded Vince Morales as Senior VP & CFO. Morales had a 41-year career at PPG. Beggs received 18,503 employee stock options and 5,039 RSUs upon joining (disclosed July 8). Implication: New CFO brings fresh perspective but introduces near-term execution risk heading into a complex raw material inflation cycle; investor focus will be on continuity of capital allocation messaging.
• July 17, 2026 — Bank of America Upgrade to Buy: BofA upgraded PPG from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to $134 from $127, citing improving Refinish recovery and valuation. Implication: Positive sentiment catalyst; stock rallied ~3% on the day.
• July 8, 2026 — RBC Capital PT Raised to $129 (from $119): Sector Perform rating maintained. Implication: Modest positive; Street broadly constructive but not aggressively bullish.
• June 24, 2026 — Mizuho PT Raised to $135 (from $125): Outperform rating maintained. Implication: Positive; one of the more bullish targets on the Street.
• June 17, 2026 — Citigroup PT Raised to $125 (from $114): Neutral rating maintained. Implication: Modest positive; still cautious on valuation.
• June 30, 2026 — Q2 2026 Earnings Date Announced: PPG announced Q2 2026 results will be reported July 28, 2026. Implication: Confirms today’s earnings date.
• May 1, 2026 — Goldman Sachs PT Cut to $130 (from $134); JPMorgan PT Cut to $125 (from $126): Ratings unchanged for both. Implication: Modest negative post-Q1 earnings; Street trimmed targets on raw material headwind concerns.
• April 28, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings / Pre-Announcement Confirmed: PPG pre-announced strong Q1 results on April 15 and confirmed on April 28. Beat on both revenue and EPS. Reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $7.70–$8.10. Introduced new raw material inflation headwind from Iran conflict. Implication: Sets the baseline for Q2 expectations; raw material inflation is the key new variable.

Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since Q1 earnings are non-discretionary phantom stock unit accruals and compensation-related awards — no open-market buys or sells. The absence of discretionary insider buying is neutral, not a negative signal given the compensation structure.

No open-market purchases (code P) or sales (code S) were filed during the period. All transactions are compensation-related awards (code A) — phantom stock units, RSUs, or options. The new CFO’s equity grant is the only notable transaction and is standard for an incoming executive. The complete absence of discretionary selling is a mild positive signal.

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 filings, April 28 – July 28, 2026).