{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.44 vs. cons $3.38",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "PGIM AUM / other-related revenue (pre-announced)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.49T AUM vs. cons ~$1.45T",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Group Insurance benefits ratio / AOI",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~85.0% ratio vs. cons ~84.0%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$13.70 vs. cons $13.81 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "POJ (Japan) sales-suspension pretax AOI hit",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$550M vs. cons $550M (FY2026 aggregate)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective tax rate guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~21.5% vs. cons 22.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock rallied ~15% into the print on pre-announced actuarial/AUM items, raising the bar; core Q2 beat looks largely pre-digested while the implicit FY2026 EPS trim (Japan cost run-rate building toward the high end of $525-575M guide, alts shortfall, softer Group Insurance) pulls sell-side FY26/27 estimates down even after an in-line-to-modest headline beat, and unless the strategy update delivers concrete new targets/buyback acceleration, initial pop fades as analysts reset numbers over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}