PTC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PTC Report Net new ARR (constant-currency, ex-divested) BEAT pred ~$52M net new ARR (ARR ~$2.44B, +8.9% cc) vs. cons ~$48M (+8.5%) MEDIUM
PTC Report Free cash flow (Q3'26) BEAT pred ~$252M vs. cons ~$243M MEDIUM
PTC Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q3'26) BEAT pred ~$1.68 vs. cons ~$1.60 LOW
PTC Guide FY26 constant-currency net new ARR UNCHANGED guide ~$195M net new / 7.5-9.5% cc reaffirmed vs. cons ~$195M (FY26) MEDIUM
PTC Guide FY26 free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$850M (~$950M clean baseline) vs. cons ~$850M (FY26) MEDIUM
PTC Guide Q4'26 net new ARR step-up / deferred-ARR confidence (implied) BETTER guide implies ~$75M+ Q4 net new vs. cons ~$72M (Q4'26); mgmt reiterates de-risked, deferred-ARR-backed hockey stick LOW
PTC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% MEDIUM
PTC Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.0% (STABILIZE) Washed-out sentiment (-25% YTD, June/July air-pockets) and a low bar set up an outsized relief pop if Q3 net new ARR grows YoY (de-risked) and FCF/EPS beat, mirroring the +8% Q2 reaction. But this is a credibility check, not the acceleration quarter: the FY26 ARR guide is likely reaffirmed rather than raised, so the out-period (Q4) still carries the big step-up and forward ARR/EPS estimates don't move materially higher. That caps follow-through — the initial gain holds/stabilizes rather than compounds, with aggressive ~$250M/qtr buybacks cushioning downside; a fade risk remains if any wobble in Q4 confidence or the 'flat ex-deferred' underlying reignites skepticism. LOW