| PYPL |
Report |
Branded checkout TPV growth (FXN) |
MISS |
pred ~+1% vs. cons ~+2.5% |
MEDIUM |
| PYPL |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.31 vs. cons ~$1.28 |
MEDIUM |
| PYPL |
Report |
Transaction margin dollars growth (YoY) |
MISS |
pred ~-3.5% vs. cons ~-2.5% |
LOW |
| PYPL |
Guide |
FY26 Non-GAAP EPS (reaffirm vs. cut) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5.25 (down LSD to slightly up) vs. cons ~$5.25 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PYPL |
Guide |
Q3 transaction margin dollars ex-interest |
LOWER |
guide ~flat/-1% vs. cons ~+1% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PYPL |
Guide |
Board/M&A response to Stripe-Advent $60.50 bid |
UNKNOWN |
stock ~$56 vs. bid $60.50 (spread ~8%); board deems 'inadequate' — no formal engagement expected |
MEDIUM |
| PYPL |
Guide |
$1.5B cost-savings program cadence / buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
~$6B FY26 buyback vs. ~$6B expected; ≥$1.5B run-rate savings over 2-3yrs (FY2026-28) |
LOW |
| PYPL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| PYPL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (STABILIZE) |
PYPL trades as a merger-arb special situation, not a fundamentals stock: with shares ~$56 vs. a $60.50 bid the board calls inadequate, the deal spread anchors price and dampens the usual out-period revision math. A soft-but-guided Q2 (branded-checkout stall, ~9% EPS decline) is largely pre-announced, so any day-1 pop on a clean print/reaffirmed guide (which strengthens the board's 'lowball' argument) neither fully follows through nor fully fades — it stabilizes near the arb-implied level. Downside risk if checkout deteriorates and emboldens bidders/no counter emerges; upside if board signals value-maximization or a higher bid. Net: range-bound around the spread. |
LOW |