PYPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PYPL Report Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.28 MEDIUM
PYPL Report Total Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$8.51B vs. cons $8.49B MEDIUM
PYPL Report Transaction Margin Dollars (ex-interest, YoY) BEAT pred ~-1.5% vs. cons -3.0% MEDIUM
PYPL Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~flat-to-+2% vs. cons +1% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PYPL Guide FY2026 Transaction Margin Dollars guidance UNCHANGED guide ~roughly flat (0% to +1%) vs. cons +0.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PYPL Guide FY2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow / Buyback framework UNCHANGED guide ~$6.0B FCF / $6.0B buybacks vs. cons $6.0B/$6.0B (FY2026) LOW
PYPL Guide Q3 Branded Checkout & Venmo TPV commentary BETTER guide ~qualitative improvement (checkout +2-3% CFN, Venmo low-teens+) vs. cons flat-to-slight deceleration (Q3 2026) LOW
PYPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
PYPL Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) An in-line-to-modest beat plus a reaffirmed (not raised) full-year framework gives limited fresh upside to full-year estimates, since the beat is largely the already-signaled 'toughest comp' quarter playing out as guided rather than a genuine upward revision. With FY26 EPS/TM guidance unchanged, the implicit back-half math still requires H2 reacceleration that the Street hasn't yet underwritten, capping estimate revisions. Meanwhile the live Stripe/Advent takeover saga (board pushing for ~$70 vs. rejected $60.50 bid) remains the dominant swing factor for the stock over the following days, likely overwhelming the fundamental print and causing the initial earnings-driven pop to partially fade as attention reverts to deal headlines and advisor (Goldman/Evercore) commentary rather than sustained fundamental re-rating. LOW