RCL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RCL Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$4.05 vs. cons $3.96 MEDIUM
RCL Report Net Yields, Constant Currency (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~0.8% vs. cons/guide ~0.2% MEDIUM
RCL Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$4.86B vs. cons $4.82B MEDIUM
RCL Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$17.45 vs. cons $17.30 (FY2026) MEDIUM
RCL Guide Q3 2026 Net Yield Growth Guidance BETTER guide ~1.5% vs. cons ~1.0% (Q3 2026) LOW
RCL Guide FY2026 NCC ex-Fuel Constant Currency Guidance BETTER guide ~flat (0.0%) vs. cons ~0.3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
RCL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
RCL Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Q2 print should confirm the flagged EPS/yield beat and 'turned the corner' Mediterranean narrative already well-telegraphed by management and corroborated by Carnival's Q2 (which itself sold off -4.9% on report day despite similar reassuring commentary, showing sector 'sell-the-news' risk). RCL rallied ~8% into the print (283→305 in the week prior), pricing in much of the good news. Even with a beat and FY guide reaffirmation, lingering ~200bps Q3 yield/cost headwinds (dry docks, geopolitical comps) mean out-period estimate revisions for Q3 stay soft, capping follow-through and pulling back part of the initial pop over the week. MEDIUM