| REG |
Report |
Nareit FFO / share |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.21 vs. cons $1.20 |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Report |
Same-Property NOI growth (Q2) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~2.75% vs. cons 2.8% |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Report |
Core Operating Earnings / share |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.16 vs. cons $1.15 |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Guide |
FY2026 Nareit FFO/share guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.85-4.88 (raise/narrow to high end) vs. cons $4.86 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Guide |
FY2026 Core Operating Earnings/share guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.61-4.64 vs. cons $4.62 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Guide |
FY2026 Same-Property NOI growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.25-3.75% (reaffirm, possible narrow up) vs. cons 3.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Guide |
Development starts / in-process pipeline |
BETTER |
guide >$600M in-process at >9% yield vs. cons ~$600M (FY2026/3-yr) |
LOW |
| REG |
Guide |
SNO pipeline / commenced-occupancy bridge |
BETTER |
guide ~$42M+ SNO base rent vs. cons ~$40M (out-period) |
LOW |
| REG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-0.7% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| REG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.2% (FADE) |
Premium ~16.7x forward FFO and a stock that ran +19% YTD near highs set a high bar; Q2's pre-flagged soft SP NOI 'air pocket' means the reported quarter itself won't drive upward revisions. Even a modest FFO beat and small guide raise/narrow leaves out-period estimates roughly flat (back-half-weighted development starts, decel already in numbers), so consensus doesn't move materially higher. Combined with the Q1-print precedent (shares fell ~2% on a strong report) and the -1.6% idiosyncratic pullback into the print, the path is a fade: any initial pop gets sold as the priced-in premium caps upside and estimates stabilize rather than climb. |
LOW |