{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue (2Q26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.90B vs. cons $3.82B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Non-GAAP EPS (2Q26, incl. ~$1.00 IPR&D charge)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.60 vs. cons $10.26",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EYLEA HD U.S. net sales",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$505M vs. cons ~$490M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Sanofi collaboration revenue / profit-share step-up",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide full-profit-share begins 3Q26, ~$2.30B+ vs. cons ~$2.13B (3Q26 collab rev)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 GAAP gross margin (Limerick disruption)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~77-78% vs. cons ~77-78% (FY26, already cut from 79-80%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EYLEA base (ex-HD) U.S. demand trajectory / biosimilar timing",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide mid-to-high-teens % demand decline vs. cons ~-15% (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EYLEA HD PFS approval decision",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide decision expected in ~2Q/near-term vs. cons ~1 of 2 apps approved (2H26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran ~11% into the print (from ~$651 on 7/23 to ~$696), so a largely 'known' quarter with a beat is mostly priced. Even on top-line/EPS beats, out-period math cuts estimates: accelerating EYLEA base erosion into 2H26 biosimilars, the ~$1.00 IPR&D drag, Limerick GAAP margin pressure and the unresolved fianlimab/oncology overhang pull 2H and FY revisions lower, so an initial pop should fade back toward flat.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}