SBUX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SBUX Report Global comparable sales (FQ3) BEAT pred ~+6.5% vs. cons +5.75% MEDIUM
SBUX Report North America comparable sales (FQ3) BEAT pred ~+6.8% vs. cons +6.0% MEDIUM
SBUX Report Non-GAAP EPS (FQ3) IN-LINE pred ~$0.66 vs. cons $0.65 MEDIUM
SBUX Report Non-GAAP operating margin (FQ3) MISS pred ~12.0% vs. cons 12.33% LOW
SBUX Guide FY26 Non-GAAP EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$2.25-$2.45 (mid ~$2.35) vs. cons ~$2.38 (FY26) MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 global/US comps guide UNCHANGED guide ~≥5% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY26) MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 consolidated revenue guide UNCHANGED guide ~flat YoY (~$36B) vs. cons ~$36B (FY26, China deconsolidation) MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 non-GAAP operating margin guide UNKNOWN guide ~slightly up YoY (~+50bps) vs. cons ~+70bps (FY26) LOW
SBUX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% LOW
SBUX Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Comp beat is already priced after the +8.5% FQ2 gap and re-rate to multi-year highs, so an in-line EPS with a messy print (international held-for-sale margin tailwind reversing, NA margin still under Green Apron/coffee/tariff pressure, China deconsolidation optically cutting revenue) and only a reaffirmed—not raised—FY26 guide disappoints an elevated bar. Out-period revenue estimates get trimmed on the China accounting change even after a comp beat, pulling numbers down and driving continued fade over the week. LOW