SBUX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SBUX Report Global comparable store sales growth (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~6.7% vs. cons 5.75% HIGH
SBUX Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$0.70 vs. cons $0.66 MEDIUM
SBUX Report Non-GAAP operating margin (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~12.7% vs. cons 12.3% MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 global/U.S. comparable sales growth guidance BETTER guide ~6%+ vs. cons ~5.5% (FY26) MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$2.40-$2.55 (mid $2.48) vs. cons $2.35 (FY26) MEDIUM
SBUX Guide FY26 consolidated net revenue guidance (China JV deconsolidation drag) UNCHANGED guide ~flat 0% vs. cons -0.5% (FY26) HIGH
SBUX Guide FY26 non-GAAP operating margin guidance BETTER guide ~+40-60bps yoy vs. cons ~+20bps yoy (FY26) LOW
SBUX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
SBUX Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.0% (STABILIZE) Comps/EPS/margin beat plus a comp and EPS guide raise should support an initial pop similar in direction to the ~8.5% Q2 reaction, but muted in magnitude because buy-side whisper numbers (UBS ~7% comps) already sit above the official 5.75% Street consensus and the stock is up ~25% YTD near highs, leaving less room for surprise. The China JV deconsolidation mechanically cuts headline revenue (already flagged, not a new negative), so out-period EPS/comp revisions should move up modestly on the raise without a offsetting round of consensus cuts elsewhere - net picture is a held gap rather than a strong follow-through melt-up or a fade, consistent with the flat/consolidating price action seen in the five sessions after the April Q2 print. MEDIUM