Report Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (before market open) | Current Price: ~$327 (7/27/26 close)
SHW shares have been range-bound and volatile in 2026, falling from a February high near $373 to a June low near $293 before recovering to the high-$320s heading into the report. The stock has lagged the broader market and its own materials sector over the past year — one recent report noted Sherwin-Williams stock has declined marginally over the past year, while the S&P 500 Index has surged 20.2%, and it has also underperformed the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB), which had delivered a 13.8% return over the same period. Wall Street remains constructive overall: among the 24 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy" overall, with a mean price target of $372.10 implying meaningful upside. Sentiment has softened somewhat recently, however — Berenberg trimmed its target to $380 from $400 after a management meeting, even while keeping a Buy rating.
Sherwin-Williams' first quarter set the tone for a "beat-and-hold" year. Consolidated Net sales increased 6.8% to $5.67 billion in the quarter, while Diluted net income per share increased 7.5% to $2.15 per share... Adjusted diluted net income per share increased 4.4% to $2.35 per share. Management reiterated full-year guidance rather than raising it, citing macro uncertainty from the Middle East conflict: the company was Reaffirming full year 2026 diluted net income per share guidance in the range of $10.70 to $11.10 per share... Reaffirming full year 2026 adjusted diluted net income per share guidance in the range of $11.50 to $11.90 per share.
By segment in Q1: - Paint Stores Group (PSG): Net sales $3,049.9 million, up 3.7%, with same-store sales up 2.4%, driven by mid-single-digit growth, with price/mix and volume both increasing by low single-digit percentages. Protective & Marine and residential repaint were standouts, while new residential construction stayed weak. - Consumer Brands Group (CBG): Sales jumped 19.2% to $908.3 million, largely from the Suvinil acquisition, with adjusted margin expanding to 23.4% on global supply-chain efficiencies, even as North America DIY demand stayed soft. - Performance Coatings Group (PCG): Sales rose 6.5% to $1,705.8 million, led by double-digit growth in Automotive Refinish and high-single-digit growth in Packaging and General Industrial.
Balance sheet and capital return remained disciplined: the company returned $773 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends and ended the first quarter with a strong balance sheet and a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.5x.
The dominant theme since Q1 has been the Middle East conflict's impact on petrochemical feedstocks, and this will be the key swing factor in Q2 results. Management raised its full year raw material inflation outlook to the range of up, low to mid-single digits, explaining that propylene drives about 75% of our basket, and that pricing is up because of the Middle East forecasted maybe up 50% more through the rest of '26 related to those disruptions. Importantly, management flagged the timing: sustained inflation in these commodities typically takes about a quarter or 2 before we begin seeing an impact in our P&L... we would expect to see these inflating costs impacting us more materially as we move through the second quarter and into the second half of the year. That makes Q2 gross margin and cost commentary a critical data point — investors should watch whether the anticipated cost pressure is showing up on schedule or proving more/less severe than guided.
On offense, SHW raised its pricing assumption, expecting consolidated price/mix for the year increases to the high end of our low single-digit range, but emphasized a "surgical," customer-by-customer approach rather than a blanket increase, in order to protect volume in a soft-demand environment. Management stressed that over 80% of our consolidated revenue is in North America... and remain largely insulated from supply disruptions tied to Strait of Hormuz volatility, a key differentiator versus peers more exposed in Asia/EMEA. Watch for commentary on whether a mid-season or additional price increase becomes necessary — CEO Heidi Petz noted the company would "go again" on price if needed, but methodically and with customer lead time.
Peer read-through: Competitor PPG announced a global 20% price increase across its portfolio in April 2026 in response to the same cost inflation, and subsequently posted a strong Q2 beat with sequential EPS improvement, citing pricing realization alongside mixed volumes (aerospace/auto OEM strength vs. softer refinish and industrial demand). This suggests the industry-wide pricing environment is holding, a positive read-through for SHW's margin trajectory, though it also underscores that volume remains the swing factor across the sector.
Management has been consistent that 2026 is a "share gain, not market recovery" year. As Petz put it, this is our fourth year in a row we have been operating with the expectation of getting no help from the market, and the company flagged that its volume guide shifted from prior expectations of growth to a low-single-digit decline as consumer sentiment weakened and price increases were expected to dent demand. Recent macro data supports a cautious stance: existing-home sales fell in June 2026 and mortgage rates remain stuck near 6.5%, keeping affordability a headwind for the new residential and repaint markets SHW depends on. Investors should listen for: - Updated commentary on Paint Stores Group volume trends into the peak summer selling season, and whether residential repaint/commercial share gains continued. - Performance Coatings Group volume guidance, which was cut in Q1 amid concerns about a feedstock supply "squeeze" hitting Asia/Europe with a lag. - Any change to the 80–100 new store opening target for the year (21 opened, 27 closed in Q1). - Consumer Brands Group margin sustainability (~low-20s% target) as Suvinil integration progresses and North America DIY demand stays soft.
Consensus estimates going into the print call for revenue of roughly $6.6 billion (up ~4.4–4.8% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS in the $3.52–$3.56 range, consistent with SHW's own guidance for consolidated Net sales will be up a mid-single digit percentage compared to the second quarter of 2025. Full-year guidance calls for consolidated Net sales to be up by a low to mid-single digit percentage compared to 2025, and... adjusted diluted net income per share... in the range of $11.50 to $11.90 per share. Given the "reaffirm, don't raise" pattern from Q1, an in-line-to-modest-beat quarter with unchanged full-year guidance would likely be viewed as a solid outcome; a guidance cut tied to raw material costs outrunning pricing would be the bigger risk to the stock.
A notable subplot heading into this report is industry consolidation among SHW's largest global peers. Sherwin-Williams and Nippon Paint had jointly pursued AkzoNobel with an unsolicited proposal (reportedly around €70.50/share) earlier in 2026, but the pair walked away from the pursuit in early June after AkzoNobel's board rejected the approach. AkzoNobel instead remains committed to its previously announced all-stock merger of equals with Axalta — a deal designed to create a larger, more diversified global coatings competitor, with Axalta shareholders voting on the transaction on August 5, 2026 and closing expected late 2026/early 2027. This is relevant to SHW's Performance Coatings Group (which competes directly with Axalta in Automotive Refinish) and its international decorative paint ambitions (where Akzo is a key competitor). Expect analysts to ask about capital allocation priorities now that the Akzo pursuit has ended — likely reinforcing continued buybacks/dividends over large M&A in the near term.
This quarter is less about a single headline beat/miss and more about confirming the trajectory management laid out in April: pricing catching up to a step-change in raw material inflation (propylene-driven, tied to the Middle East conflict), continued share-gain-led volume performance in a still-soft macro/housing backdrop, and disciplined capital allocation now that the AkzoNobel pursuit is off the table. Reaffirmed full-year guidance with commentary showing raw material cost/price offsetting as planned would likely be well received; any sign that industrial/international cost inflation is outpacing the company's "surgical" pricing response — or a cut to full-year volume/EPS guidance — is the key downside risk to monitor.