SO — Claude Opus 4.8

I'll research SO (Southern Company) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, guidance, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings call (2026Q1) and release, plus check the prior year Q2 for comparison.Let me pull the year-ago Q2 for comparison and recent stock price data.Let me get the full-year 2026 EPS guidance from the Q4 2025 release and check for any recent news.# Southern Company (SO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports before market open, Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 2026Q2 Earnings Call at 1:00 p.m. ET

The one-line setup

Southern goes into Q2 as a "growth-at-a-utility-multiple" story that is executing cleanly. The debate isn't whether the numbers will be fine this quarter — it's whether management keeps converting a massive Southeast data-center/large-load pipeline into contracted load, rate base, and eventually an upward revision to the long-term EPS growth trajectory. Watch the guidance/CapEx/large-load funnel commentary more than the printed EPS.

What to expect on the print

Management's own Q2 guide is $1.00 in adjusted EPS. On the Q1 call, CFO David Poroch explicitly set the "adjusted EPS estimate for the second quarter" at $1.00. That compares to Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.92, implying ~9% year-over-year growth. A modest beat would be consistent with recent form.

Recent track record is strong. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS was $1.32, up from $1.23 a year ago and $0.12 above the company's own estimate — the best first-quarter retail sales growth "in recent history" per management. Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS was $4.30 (+6.2% vs. $4.05).

GAAP will again be messy — look at adjusted. GAAP EPS carries several recurring "excluding items," most importantly accelerated depreciation from the Southern Power wind repowering. As of year-end 2025, roughly $490M pre-tax of that charge falls in 2026 (with ~$100M more in 2027), so expect another sizeable Q2 GAAP-vs-adjusted gap plus possible debt-extinguishment and Nicor Gas disallowance items. None of these hit the adjusted number.

Metric	Q2 2025 (actual)	Q2 2026 (setup)
Adjusted EPS	$0.92	~$1.00 (co. guide)
GAAP EPS	$0.80	Watch repowering/other items
Operating revenue	$7.0B	Growth continuing (Q1 +8%)

The real story: large-load / data-center pipeline

This is what moves the stock. The momentum has been the core bull thesis, and each quarter management has raised the funnel:

>11 GW fully contracted large-load agreements across Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi, after signing ~1.9 GW with hyperscalers in the two months before the Q1 call.
23 GW contracted or late-stage, with another ~12 GW in active late-stage discussions through the mid-2030s (up 2 GW q/q), roughly half of which management expected to convert to contracts "in the near term."
Pipeline of well over 75 GW of prospective interest.
Q1 data-center usage was up 42% y/y; weather-normal commercial sales +4.5%.

What to watch: (1) Did contracted load step up again toward/through the mid-teens GW? (2) Any commentary on Georgia "churn" — last quarter management framed softer Georgia numbers as speculative demand being filtered out by collateral requirements, not a demand problem. (3) Whether the risk-adjusted load forecast rises again, since that feeds future RFPs and rate base.

Rate base / CapEx catalysts to listen for

Georgia all-source RFP (2–6 GW) for 2032–2033 in-service resources. Selection runs through year-end 2026, certification through 2027, spend from ~2028. Rule of thumb given: ~1 GW of company-owned generation ≈ ~$2B+ of incremental CapEx later in the plan — the main lever for a future guidance/growth-rate raise. Not expected to be resolved this quarter, but incremental color matters.
Southern Power growth: ~400 MW of gas uprates added (~$700M CapEx, COD 2029–2031), with another ~300 MW under evaluation plus recontracting of tolling agreements rolling off in the 2030s and potential new hyperscaler/gas deals. Fleet is ~mid-90s% contracted. Any brownfield/greenfield update was flagged for "later in the year."
~10 GW of already-approved new generation in build (batteries + gas CTs online through 2027). Two battery systems (~200 MW) hit commercial operation early in 2026 — watch for further milestones.

Balance sheet, financing & dividend

Equity need trimmed to ~$1.8B of equity/equity-equivalents through 2030, targeting 17% FFO/debt by 2029. Incremental CapEx is being funded ~40% equity. Watch for updated ATM/forward activity and any change to the equity figure as CapEx grows.
$26.5B of DOE loan agreements for Alabama/Georgia (~$7B projected cumulative customer savings over ~30 years) meaningfully de-risk capital-market needs — a genuine differentiator.
Dividend raised $0.08 to $3.04 annualized — the 25th consecutive annual increase (79 straight years of paying ≥ prior year). Payout is well covered; no change expected this quarter but it anchors the total-return case.

Regulatory & political watch items

Georgia base rates frozen through 2028, Alabama through at least 2029. Growth is being used to hold rates stable and even push them down (Georgia fuel/storm-cost recovery filings). Any hint the ~$850M of cumulative bill credits could grow would be a positive affordability signal.
Georgia PSC elections (May 2026 primary, June runoffs) — two seats. Management downplayed risk, citing a long history of working across administrations, but election outcomes and the affordability/data-center debate are worth monitoring for regulatory tone.
Nicor Gas (Illinois) disallowances remain a small recurring negative item to track.

Stock & sentiment context

SO has traded in a ~$89–$98 band over the last quarter and sits around ~$96 heading into the print — essentially flat-to-slightly-firmer, i.e., the market is not pricing a big surprise. As a low-beta, dividend-growth utility with an unusually clear data-center growth narrative and de-risked financing, the setup favors: - Upside: another raise to the large-load contracted number, warm summer weather boosting cooling load, positive RFP/Southern Power color, or any move toward the top of / an increase in the long-term growth rate (management has been pointing at durability/length of the ~7–8% trajectory). - Downside/risks: milder weather (a Q1 headwind), higher interest expense, any softening or delay in data-center conversions, adverse Georgia political/regulatory headlines, and continued noisy GAAP items.

Bottom line

Expect a "beat-and-hold" type quarter around the ~$1.00 adjusted EPS guide, with the share-price reaction driven by updates to the large-load funnel, the Georgia RFP/CapEx pipeline, and financing/equity commentary rather than the headline EPS. The key question for the stock is whether continued load momentum + the RFP process ultimately force an upward revision to rate base and the long-term growth rate — this call is an opportunity for management to keep building that case.

Note: figures above are drawn from Southern's Q1 2026, Q4/FY2025 and Q2 2025 earnings materials and recent price data; consensus estimates and any FY2026 guidance range should be cross-checked against the actual release, as I anchored to the company's own $1.00 Q2 guide rather than street consensus.