SO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SO Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.04 vs. cons $1.01 MEDIUM
SO Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$7.40B vs. cons $7.26B LOW
SO Report Weather-Normalized Retail Electric Sales Growth YoY (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~3.3% vs. cons ~2.3% MEDIUM
SO Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance (reaffirm/raise?) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.55 midpoint (range $4.50-$4.60) vs. cons $4.57 (FY2026) HIGH
SO Guide FY2026 Weather-Normalized Retail Sales Growth outlook BETTER guide ~3.5% vs. cons/prior ~3.0% (FY2026) LOW
SO Guide Contracted Large-Load/Data-Center Pipeline (GW signed) BETTER guide ~13GW signed vs. cons/prior disclosed 11GW (as of Q2 2026 call) LOW
SO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.4% MEDIUM
SO Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (STABILIZE) Q2 beat looks driven partly by a late-June/early-July Southeast heat wave (favorable but not fully sustainable weather tailwind) layered on genuine data-center/large-load structural growth; with FY26 EPS guidance likely reaffirmed rather than raised (consensus $4.57 already sits at the $4.50-4.60 midpoint) and no change to the multi-year 7-9% algorithm, there is little basis for analysts to push out-period estimates materially higher, capping follow-through. At the same time, the 11-year beat streak, incremental contracted-GW disclosure, and DOE-loan-backed financing de-risking should prevent meaningful post-print fade, so the stock likely holds most of its day-1 move with a slight positive drift as sell-side models true up minor beat-and-raise-adjacent commentary (retail sales growth, large-load GW) over the following days. MEDIUM