| SPGI |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS (2Q, GAAP still incl. Mobility) |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.78 vs. cons ~$4.65 |
MEDIUM |
| SPGI |
Report |
Total revenue (2Q, incl. Mobility) |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.00B vs. cons ~$3.94B |
MEDIUM |
| SPGI |
Report |
Ratings revenue (2Q, issuance-driven swing factor) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.28B (+9%) vs. cons ~$1.24B (+6%) |
MEDIUM |
| SPGI |
Guide |
NEW ex-Mobility FY26 adjusted EPS guide (single most-watched) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$16.30–16.60 vs. cons ~$16.45 (FY26 ex-Mobility, vs. $15.85 pro-forma base) |
LOW |
| SPGI |
Guide |
FY26 reported revenue growth guide (ex-Mobility, new framework) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~6–8% vs. cons ~7% (FY26 ex-Mobility) |
LOW |
| SPGI |
Guide |
Ratings H2 trajectory commentary (moderate Q3, negative Q4) |
LOWER |
guide FY Ratings ~+5% vs. cons ~+7% (H2'26, Q4 turns negative on tough comps) |
MEDIUM |
| SPGI |
Guide |
Energy FY organic cc growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~4.5–6% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY26, cut prior quarter on Iran/energy shock) |
LOW |
| SPGI |
Guide |
Capital return intent (buyback + spin cash deployment) |
BETTER |
guide ≥100% adj. FCF ~$4.5B vs. cons ~$4.0B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| SPGI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.0% |
— |
LOW |
| SPGI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.3% (FADE) |
Expect a modest day-1 pop on a clean 2Q beat (Ratings issuance + resilient Indices) and an ex-Mobility guide framing at/slightly above the $15.85 pro-forma base plus stepped-up buybacks. But the out-period math is bearish: management has telegraphed Ratings decelerating in Q3 and turning NEGATIVE in Q4 on tough comps, plus a cut Energy guide — so forward estimates get trimmed even after the beat. Add the optics noise (GAAP still includes Mobility for full 2Q, segment recast, stranded-cost/TSA margin distortion), and the initial move gives back over the week as the Street re-rates the smaller stand-alone company on decelerating H2 growth. |
LOW |