{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (2Q, GAAP still incl. Mobility)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.78 vs. cons ~$4.65",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue (2Q, incl. Mobility)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.00B vs. cons ~$3.94B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ratings revenue (2Q, issuance-driven swing factor)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.28B (+9%) vs. cons ~$1.24B (+6%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "NEW ex-Mobility FY26 adjusted EPS guide (single most-watched)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$16.30\u201316.60 vs. cons ~$16.45 (FY26 ex-Mobility, vs. $15.85 pro-forma base)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 reported revenue growth guide (ex-Mobility, new framework)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~6\u20138% vs. cons ~7% (FY26 ex-Mobility)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ratings H2 trajectory commentary (moderate Q3, negative Q4)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide FY Ratings ~+5% vs. cons ~+7% (H2'26, Q4 turns negative on tough comps)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Energy FY organic cc growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4.5\u20136% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY26, cut prior quarter on Iran/energy shock)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return intent (buyback + spin cash deployment)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide \u2265100% adj. FCF ~$4.5B vs. cons ~$4.0B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Expect a modest day-1 pop on a clean 2Q beat (Ratings issuance + resilient Indices) and an ex-Mobility guide framing at/slightly above the $15.85 pro-forma base plus stepped-up buybacks. But the out-period math is bearish: management has telegraphed Ratings decelerating in Q3 and turning NEGATIVE in Q4 on tough comps, plus a cut Energy guide \u2014 so forward estimates get trimmed even after the beat. Add the optics noise (GAAP still includes Mobility for full 2Q, segment recast, stranded-cost/TSA margin distortion), and the initial move gives back over the week as the Street re-rates the smaller stand-alone company on decelerating H2 growth.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}