I'll research SPGI before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent earnings materials, filings, and news.Let me read the most recent quarter's release and transcript, and check for recent news.Major structural changes since Q1. Let me read the key July press releases (spin-off, pro forma recast, reorg) and the Q1 2026 call transcript.Let me read the Q1 2026 call transcript for management color, get the recent stock price, and search for analyst expectations.Let me check the latest news for any final setup items before writing.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Report date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Release ~7:15am ET, call 8:30am ET Recent price: ~$439.87 (7/27 close) · Presenters: Martina Cheung (CEO), Eric Aboaf (CFO), Mark Grant (IR)
This is the most important "plumbing" quarter in years — the first report after the Mobility Global (NYSE: MBGL) spin-off closed on July 1, and the first look at SPGI as a slimmed-down, four-segment, AI-forward data company. The actual 2Q print matters less than (1) the brand-new ex-Mobility guidance framework and (2) whether the Ratings/issuance cycle and Energy recovery are tracking to plan. Expect a noisy headline and a heavy focus on the restated numbers.
Three structural things happened between the Q1 (April 28) print and this report:
Mobility spin completed July 1, 2026. Critically, management has flagged that 2Q GAAP results will still include Mobility for the full second quarter, but from Q3 onward Mobility disappears from both GAAP and adjusted results. So the headline 2Q revenue/EPS will look "full-size," then the go-forward guide will step down to reflect the smaller company. Don't confuse the two.
New guidance regime. Management has explicitly said it will introduce 2026 GAAP guidance for the first time and reset adjusted guidance to exclude Mobility with this release. The prior guide ($19.40–$19.65 adjusted EPS; 6.3–8.3% reported revenue growth) included Mobility and is now stale. The new ex-Mobility adjusted EPS number is the single most-watched figure of the day.
Segment reorganization + recast (announced July 6). SPGI now reports four segments, and Market Intelligence was reorganized around AI. Use the recast base rates below, not the old segment history.
| Metric | 2Q'25 (pro forma) | 1Q'26 (pro forma) | FY'25 (pro forma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3,317M | $3,717M | $13,589M |
| Adj. diluted EPS | $3.92 | $4.44 | $15.85 |
The old ~$19.40–$19.65 guide will be replaced; the ex-Mobility FY'25 base was $15.85, so watch where the new FY'26 bar lands relative to that.
| Segment | % of revenue | % of adj. op. profit | Adj. margin | New reported business lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratings | 34% | 43% | 65% | Corporates, Financials, Structured Finance, Governments, Crisil/Other (+ Credit Analytics moved in from MI) |
| Market Intelligence | 34% | 22% | 33% | Kensho Data & Platforms (60%), Enterprise Solutions (40%) |
| Energy | 18% | 16% | 46% | Platts (49%), CERA (51%) (+ Maritime & Trade / 451 Research moved in from MI) |
| Indices | 13% | 18% | 70% | Asset-Linked Fees (65%), Exchange-Traded Derivatives (18%), Data & Custom Subscriptions (17%) |
The MI reorg splits the business into Kensho Data & Platforms (the data/AI-delivery layer + client interfaces like Capital IQ, Visible Alpha, With Intelligence) and Enterprise Solutions (mission-critical software/networks — ClearPar, WSO, Counterparty Manager, Financial Risk Analytics). Also note expense-allocation methodology changes and stranded-cost offsets via the Transition Services Agreement with Mobility — a reason to expect some segment-margin noise vs. history.
Ratings (the swing factor). Q1 was very strong — revenue +13%, billed issuance +14%, led by investment grade and a wave of hyperscaler AI-infrastructure and M&A debt. But management was explicit that much of Q1's strength was pull-forward, and guided that Ratings growth would NOT accelerate in Q2, moderate in Q3, and turn negative in Q4 against tough comps. So a strong Q2 Ratings number is already expected; the market reaction hinges on issuance commentary and the H2 trajectory. Also watch private-credit ratings (+25% in Q1 off a growing base) amid wider spreads/redemptions.
Energy (the show-me segment). Management cut Energy's FY organic cc growth guide to 4.5–6% (from 5.5–7%) on the Iran conflict/energy shock, and said Q2 growth would fall slightly below the full-year range before reaccelerating in H2. Key questions: Is the "stabilizes by end of 2Q" assumption holding? How is the sanctions headwind trending? Watch the new Platts vs. CERA disclosure and traction on the AI-native Upstream product CERA Titan (hard launch later this year). Note the Upstream software divestiture to SLB is expected to close 2H'26/early '27.
Indices (the quiet compounder). Q1 revenue +17% with double-digit growth across all lines; ETD/SPX acted as a natural volatility hedge. Management guided robust Q2 growth, decelerating in H2 on tougher comps, and assumes equities roughly flat and low-double-digit ETD volume growth. Watch AUM/net inflows and any mix shift toward lower-priced S&P 500 products (a small price headwind).
Market Intelligence (the structural story). Q1 subscription revenue +6%; ACV ~6%. Management guided subscription growth to accelerate through the year on improving net sales, renewals (+~100bps) and pipeline. Watch whether that acceleration is showing up, plus early monetization of the AI stack and With Intelligence (guided high-teens growth) integration.
Management is leaning hard into AI as both a revenue story and a margin story, and this will dominate Q&A again: - Distribution: Kensho LLM-ready APIs, Model Context Protocol (MCP), and an S&P Global plug-in tied to "Claude for Financial Services." In Q1, 300+ customers were under contract/trial for LLM-ready APIs and API call volume rose ~5x quarter-over-quarter. - Monetization proof points cited in Q1: customers paying 35–45% renewal uplifts for AI-ready data access; higher retention among AI users (~200bps in MI, ~500bps in Energy); ACV growth for AI customers running well above the rest. - Margins: management says AI is "just beginning" to help margins, with the bigger benefit expected in '27–'28 — so temper near-term expectations. New CTO/Transformation Officer Firdaus Bhathena is scaling this enterprise-wide.
Watch for updated adoption/monetization metrics — the Street is looking for evidence this translates into the P&L.
Bottom line: Judge this quarter on the quality and level of the new ex-Mobility guidance and the Ratings issuance + Energy recovery commentary — not the Mobility-inflated headline. The AI monetization data points are the swing factor for the multiple.
Preview based on SPGI's 1Q'26 release and call (Apr 28, 2026), the July 1 spin completion, and the July 6 pro-forma recast / reorganization disclosures. Figures are company-reported GAAP and non-GAAP/pro-forma metrics; the actual 2Q results and restated guidance will be released the morning of July 28.