{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2 2026, consolidated incl. Mobility for the quarter)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.20B vs. cons ~$4.15B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2 2026, consolidated)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.95 vs. cons ~$4.86",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ratings segment organic revenue growth (Billed Issuance-driven)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~11% vs. cons ~9.5%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 continuing-operations (ex-Mobility) adjusted diluted EPS guidance, introduced this quarter",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$16.20 vs. cons ~$16.00 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 continuing-operations organic constant-currency revenue growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~8% vs. cons ~7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Energy segment FY2026 organic revenue growth range (Iran-conflict drag)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4.5%-6% (midpoint ~5%) vs. cons ~5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return target / adjusted free cash flow payout",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~100% of ~$4.5B adjusted FCF vs. cons ~$4.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An in-line-to-modest Q2 beat plus a credible first ex-Mobility guide should drive an initial positive pop, but the out-period math is unfavorable: management has already flagged Ratings growth decelerating through Q3 and turning negative in Q4 on tough comps, Energy's Iran-related drag only 'reaccelerates' in H2 rather than fully reversing, and stranded/TSA costs plus loss of Mobility's high-margin contribution create model uncertainty. As analysts rebuild ex-Mobility models over the following days, forward EPS/margin revisions likely get trimmed at the margin even if Q2 itself beats, causing the initial pop to fade rather than follow through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}