SPGI — Claude Sonnet 5

I'll research S&P Global (SPGI) to prepare a thorough earnings preview. Let me gather recent financial data, prior earnings commentary, and news.Let me read the Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and earnings release for details.Now let me check for more recent news, stock price trends, and any updates closer to the earnings date (Mobility spin-off progress, bond issuance trends, analyst views).This is critical — the Mobility spin-off completed on July 1, 2026. Let me read these key filings.Let me get analyst estimates and recent macro/market context via web search and public news.# S&P Global (SPGI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Report Date: July 28, 2026 (before market open) | Call: 8:30 a.m. ET

1. Setup: A Very Different Company Than Last Quarter

This is not a routine quarterly print. It is the first earnings report since S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division into an independent public company, Mobility Global Inc. (NYSE: MBGL), effective July 1, 2026, with S&P Global stockholders receiving one share of Mobility Global common stock for every share of S&P Global common stock held at the close of business on June 15, 2026, the record date.

Because the spin closed one day after the June 30 quarter-end, the mechanics of this print are unusual: the Company will report GAAP financial results that will include Mobility for the full second quarter. Beginning with the third quarter of 2026, the Company's financial results will not include financial results from Mobility on either a GAAP or adjusted basis. Critically, the Company expects to introduce 2026 GAAP guidance and update 2026 adjusted guidance reflecting the exclusion of Mobility in conjunction with the release of 2Q 2026 results. That guidance reset — the first "clean" continuing-operations outlook for RemainCo — is arguably the single most important thing investors are waiting for tomorrow, more so than the Q2 numbers themselves.

Stock context: SPGI shares closed around $440 on July 27, well off the 52-week high near $546 hit in mid-January, but recovering from a low near $391 in February. Heading into the print, the stock carries an average analyst price target of $518.72 (compared to the current share price of $428.10), and sell-side sentiment has stayed constructive — JPMorgan reportedly raised its price target to $555 from $535 in mid-July. Consensus expects S&P Global's revenue to grow 9.3% year on year, improving from the 5.8% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year, with analysts having generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days.

2. Why the Stock Is Still Well Off Its Highs

It's worth remembering the setup coming into 2026: SPGI's Q4 2025 report in February triggered a sharp sell-off after 2026 guidance came in below expectations, with the stock falling as much as high-teens percent intraday on concerns about margin compression tied to AI-native competition and a moderating credit-ratings issuance cycle after a multi-year refinancing boom. That overhang — "is the Ratings supercycle fading, and can AI investment spend be absorbed without hurting margins" — is the backdrop against which Q1 2026 (reported in April) was viewed as a reassuring beat, and it's the lens through which Q2 will be read.

3. Recap: What Q1 2026 Told Us

Q1 2026 was strong operationally but delivered against an increasingly volatile macro backdrop:

Revenue grew 10% (9% organic constant currency) to $4.17 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 14% year-over-year in the quarter, and management noted on a trailing 12-month basis, we delivered 140 basis points of margin expansion.
Ratings was the standout, up 13% (11% organic cc), as Billed Issuance increased 14% year-over-year in the first quarter, primarily driven by strength in investment grade... benefited from hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure. However, management cautioned that much of the outperformance was driven by hyperscaler issuance that our original guidance assumed would be spread more throughout the year, meaning Q1 strength was partly a pull-forward rather than a raise to the full-year outlook.
Indices grew 17%, with Exchange-Traded Derivatives revenue was up 18%, driven by strong volumes, particularly in SPX, which continues to demonstrate the natural hedge we have in this business during times of geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions.
Market Intelligence grew 8% (6% organic), with management flagging that we expect some acceleration in subscription revenue given what we're seeing in customer traction and sales pipeline for Q2.
Energy grew 7% but was the negative guidance revision: the division's full-year organic growth outlook was cut by 1 point to 4.5%–6% because the conflict in Iran has led to the largest energy shock since the 1970s, and the company said we expect revenue growth in the second quarter to fall slightly below the guidance range for the full year before reaccelerating in the second half.
Private credit showed some stress signals but Ratings' private-markets business still grew, with private markets revenues were up over 25%. Management said we didn't necessarily assume that there was going to be huge growth in middle-market CLOs... we assumed that there would be some softness in BDCs. And so far, we're seeing the trends play out as expected.
AI monetization early signals were a big talking point: ACV growth among customers who use our AI solutions is outpacing growth from other customers by a wide margin. Growth in Market Intelligence is 30% higher among AI customers compared to others, and in select renewals clients were willing to pay in the range of 35% to 45% on the renewal increase to get the AI access.

At the time, the Q1 guidance (still consolidated, including Mobility) called for full-year adjusted EPS of $19.40–$19.65 and organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6%–8%, both reiterated from initial 2026 guidance, alongside 50–75 bps of margin expansion ex-OSTTRA.

4. What Changed Since Q1: The Spin Is Done

Three major corporate actions have occurred since the April call, all central to tomorrow's story:

Mobility Global raised ~$2 billion of private debt ahead of the spin, targeting an investment-grade rating, with proceeds funding a cash payment back to S&P Global.
Mobility completed its separation on July 1, 2026 and now trades independently as MBGL.
S&P Global published recast, pro forma financials on July 6, 2026 to reflect the company on a continuing-operations (ex-Mobility) basis. Key structural changes investors should internalize before the call:
New four-segment structure: S&P Global Ratings – 34% of revenue – 43% of adjusted operating profit (65% margin)... S&P Dow Jones Indices – 13% of revenue – 18% of adjusted operating profit (70% margin)... S&P Global Energy – 18% of revenue – 16% of adjusted operating profit (46% margin)... S&P Global Market Intelligence – 34% of revenue – 22% of adjusted operating profit (33% margin)
Energy will now report two business lines, Platts and CERA, where CERA: This business line includes the proprietary data, research, and content previously reported under Energy & Resources Data & Insights, Upstream Data & Insights, as well as global marquee conferences such as CERAWeek... also includes 451 Research and Maritime & Trade products that were previously included in Market Intelligence.
Market Intelligence will now report Kensho Data & Platforms and Enterprise Solutions, reorganizing legacy Data, Analytics & Insights and Credit & Risk Solutions lines.
On a pro forma continuing-operations basis, FY2025 revenue was $13,589 million with adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations of $15.85, and Q1 2026 pro forma revenue was $3,717 million with pro forma adjusted diluted EPS of $4.44 — useful anchors for judging tomorrow's new base-case 2026 guidance.
A Transition Services Agreement, Tax Agreement, and Separation Agreement were filed alongside the spin, and stranded-cost/TSA dynamics will flow through Corporate Unallocated expense going forward — a modeling nuance analysts will likely probe on the call.

Separately, S&P Global also disclosed a leadership change: Chief Legal Officer Steven Kemps is retiring, an item that will likely get only brief mention but is worth flagging for governance-watchers.

5. Key Things to Watch in Tomorrow's Report

A) The new 2026 guide, ex-Mobility (the big one). This is the first continuing-operations guidance for RemainCo, on both GAAP and adjusted bases. Watch for: revised organic growth range, margin expansion trajectory now that Mobility's ~40% margin, high-growth Dealer/CARFAX business is gone, and how corporate unallocated expense nets out TSA income against stranded costs.

B) Ratings cadence — has the hyperscaler pull-forward faded? Management already told investors in April that we continue to expect Ratings growth to moderate in the third quarter before turning negative in the fourth quarter as we lap prior year highs, and that Q2 itself would benefit from an easy compare because the company will be lapping the disruption caused after Liberation Day last year, which creates a favorable compare... but we do not expect acceleration in 2Q. Investors should watch Billed Issuance mix (investment grade vs. bank loans vs. high yield), private-credit ratings growth, and any update on the current bond-market environment given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

C) Energy — has the Iran-conflict drag stabilized? Q1 guidance explicitly assumed the current elevated level of disruption in the energy market persists through the second quarter before reaccelerating in H2. Watch for commentary on whether that de-risking has played out, progress on the Upstream software divestiture to SLB (expected to close H2 2026/early 2027), and early traction for the new CERA Titan AI product.

D) Market Intelligence subscription acceleration. Eric Aboaf told investors Q1 ACV/subscription growth (~6%) should build through the year, with net renewal rates are up 100 basis points or so. Pipeline has been building January to February to March. Our average deal size is up. Our net sales are up. Confirmation of that acceleration — and continued monetization signal from AI features (ChatIQ, Document Intelligence, MCP-based delivery) — will matter for the multiple.

E) Indices — durability of the "volatility hedge." Watch S&P 500 ADV trends, asset-linked fee mix (index products skew toward lower-fee, broad-based exposures in volatile markets), and whether the double-digit growth in Data & Custom Subscriptions continued.

F) Capital allocation. S&P Global raised its 2026 capital-return target to at least 100% or to roughly $4.5 billion for the year of adjusted free cash flow, funded partly by the ~$2 billion cash payment from Mobility's debt raise. Confirmation of pace (Q1 alone saw returning $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases) and post-spin leverage (pre-spin target range of 2.0x–2.5x gross leverage) will be closely watched.

G) Margin phasing. Management flagged in April that Q2 margin expansion should run above the full-year range in Ratings and Indices, but below range in Mobility (for its final quarter) and Energy, and in-line for Market Intelligence — useful for setting expectations on the segment print before the ex-Mobility guide resets the baseline entirely.

6. Macro Backdrop

The operating environment described on the Q1 call remains the key swing factor: the geopolitical and economic backdrop has shifted and become substantially more challenging for many of our customers, with the Iran conflict having shocked energy markets and supply chains, and private credit navigating increased scrutiny, wider spreads and elevated redemptions. Guidance assumptions included 3.2% global GDP growth, including 2.2% growth in the U.S., and 3.2% CPI growth in the U.S., with only one U.S. rate cut assumed for the year. Whether these assumptions still hold — or whether the conflict resolution management penciled in for "end of Q2" actually materialized — will shape both the Q2 print and the new full-year guide.

7. Risks to Watch

Guidance-reset risk: A repeat of February's guidance disappointment (which triggered a double-digit stock decline) is the single biggest tail risk — especially with a brand-new base (ex-Mobility) that could reset Street models meaningfully in either direction.
Ratings deceleration: Company guidance already calls for Ratings growth to go negative in Q4 on tough comps; any signs the deceleration is arriving early would concern investors.
Energy/geopolitical drag lingering longer than the "end of Q2" assumption.
Private credit/BDC stress spilling over into ratings or fund-level data demand.
AI competitive disruption to Market Intelligence's desktop/workflow economics, and execution risk on monetizing AI usage (still described as "early days" by management).
Spin-related execution risk: stranded costs, TSA unwind, and dis-synergies as Mobility's contribution fully exits the P&L starting Q3.

8. Bottom Line

Tomorrow's report is less about the Q2 numbers in isolation — which should look reasonably solid, aided by an easy Ratings comp, continued Indices strength from equity-market resilience, and building MI subscription momentum — and much more about the quality and credibility of the first "clean" continuing-operations 2026 guide. With the stock still trading roughly 20% below both its 52-week high and the average analyst price target, investors will be looking for: (1) confirmation that Ratings' issuance strength isn't merely a hyperscaler-driven pull-forward, (2) evidence the Iran-related Energy drag is fading as management projected, (3) further proof points that AI monetization is translating into real ACV/pricing power in Market Intelligence, and (4) a capital-return and leverage framework for the newly slimmed-down, four-segment company that reassures the market the spin has strengthened rather than complicated the growth algorithm.