Timing correction: S&P Global’s official schedule says Q2 results are due today, Tuesday, July 28, 2026, at approximately 7:15 a.m. ET, followed by the earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET—not tomorrow. (investor.spglobal.com)
The quarter itself should be solid, with Ratings and Indices likely providing the strongest growth. But the headline numbers may be unusually difficult to interpret because S&P Global completed the Mobility Global spin-off on July 1.
The most consequential parts of the report are therefore likely to be:
A modest EPS beat would matter less than management establishing a credible earnings, margin and capital-return framework for the four-division company.
Mobility Global became independent on July 1, 2026. S&P Global will include Mobility for the full second quarter in its GAAP results, but Mobility’s results through June 30 will ultimately be presented as discontinued operations. Starting in Q3, Mobility will be absent from both GAAP and adjusted results.
S&P Global has also recast its remaining divisions, moved products between Market Intelligence and Energy, and changed how shared expenses are allocated. The continuing company now consists of:
On the recast 2025 base, Ratings and Market Intelligence each represented approximately 34% of revenue, Energy 18% and Indices 13%. Ratings generated 43% of adjusted segment profit and Indices 18%, highlighting the concentration of earnings in the two highest-margin businesses. (s29.q4cdn.com)
| Division | Q2 2025 recast revenue | Q2 focus |
|---|---|---|
| Ratings | $1.148B | Transaction revenue, billed issuance and mix |
| Indices | $446M | Asset-linked fees and derivatives volumes |
| Energy | $607M | Iran-related demand pressure and Platts activity |
| Market Intelligence | $1.165B | Subscription growth and AI monetization |
Published consensus is unusually inconsistent: Zacks lists approximately $3.65 billion of revenue and $4.49 of EPS, while TipRanks shows an EPS forecast closer to $4.81. That dispersion likely reflects differing treatment of Mobility and the recast financials. Investors should therefore rely more heavily on continuing-operations results, segment KPIs and updated guidance than on the headline “beat or miss.” (stage.zacks.com)
Ratings entered Q2 with considerable momentum. In Q1:
Management cautioned that some hyperscaler issuance had been pulled forward and said it did not expect Q2 Ratings growth to accelerate from Q1. However, Q2 also faced a favorable year-over-year comparison because debt markets were disrupted following “Liberation Day” in April 2025. S&P Global maintained its Ratings outlook at the Q1 report. (sec.gov)
Moody’s reported an exceptionally strong Q2:
Moody’s attributed the strength to AI and data-center financing, refinancing, private credit, infrastructure and financial-institution issuance. This is a strong read-through for S&P Global, although revenue conversion can differ because large investment-grade and frequent-issuer deals often carry lower fees per dollar of issuance. (investing.com)
A strong volume number accompanied by weak transaction-revenue conversion would be less bullish than it initially appears. Conversely, sustained issuance plus stable pricing and margin would be the clearest positive surprise.
Market Intelligence is the most important test of the recurring-growth story.
On a recast basis, Q1 revenue was approximately $1.224 billion, up about 8%, while adjusted margin was roughly 33%. Management said subscription growth was around 6% and expected it to accelerate in Q2, supported by:
The division is now reported through two businesses:
That new structure is intended to make the data, AI-delivery and mission-critical workflow strategies easier to evaluate. (s29.q4cdn.com)
S&P Global disclosed in Q1 that:
Investors should look for evidence that this usage is becoming measurable revenue rather than remaining primarily a retention and engagement story.
A good result: subscription growth accelerates above Q1’s 6% rate, ACV improves and management quantifies incremental AI-related pricing or sales.
A weaker result: engagement metrics continue rising, but ACV, subscription revenue and net sales remain around 6%.
Indices was S&P Global’s fastest-growing division in Q1:
Management expected another robust quarter before growth decelerates in the second half against tougher comparisons.
The division benefits from two partially offsetting forces:
The risk is mix: volatile markets can push flows toward lower-priced products tied to major benchmarks such as the S&P 500, reducing realized fee rates even when assets rise.
The most useful metrics will be average index-linked AUM, net flows, SPX derivatives volumes and realized asset-linked pricing.
Energy’s Q1 revenue grew 7%, but management lowered full-year organic constant-currency growth guidance by one percentage point to 4.5%–6% because of the Iran conflict and associated disruption to customers and supply chains.
Management specifically expected Q2 growth to fall slightly below that full-year range before improving in the second half. That makes low- to mid-single-digit organic growth a reasonable bar.
The division is now organized as:
The report should address:
A further Energy guidance reduction would probably outweigh a modest consolidated EPS beat.
Previous 2026 guidance included Mobility and called for:
Those figures are no longer directly applicable to continuing S&P Global. The company said it would introduce GAAP guidance and update adjusted guidance excluding Mobility with Q2 results. (sec.gov)
Questions investors need answered:
The quality of this guidance bridge will likely matter more than Q2 headline EPS.
S&P Global enters the report with favorable operating momentum in Ratings and Indices, a credible but still-unproven AI monetization opportunity in Market Intelligence, and identifiable pressure in Energy.
The cleanest positive thesis is strong debt issuance plus improving recurring data growth, amplified by high margins and aggressive buybacks. The main risks are poor Ratings revenue conversion, another Energy downgrade and an underwhelming post-spin earnings bridge.
With SPGI closing July 27 at about $440, the market appears to be assigning significant importance to execution and guidance clarity after the Mobility separation.
Most important number: updated 2026 adjusted EPS from continuing operations.
Most important operating KPI: Market Intelligence subscription/ACV growth.
Most likely source of upside: Ratings.
Most likely source of downside: Energy or post-spin cost guidance.