S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is modestly constructive — consensus is a manageable bar after Q1’s strong beat, and the biggest swing factor is whether Ratings transaction revenue can sustain momentum despite management’s own guidance for no Q2 acceleration, while Market Intelligence subscription growth delivers the promised sequential acceleration.

Heading into Q2 2026, SPGI’s setup is broadly constructive but nuanced. The consensus bar is achievable: adjusted diluted EPS consensus sits at ~$4.56 vs. $3.92 in Q2 2025, implying ~16% YoY growth, and management reiterated full-year EPS guidance of $19.40–$19.65 at Q1 earnings without raising it, leaving room for a beat if Ratings and Indices outperform. Management’s tone was cautiously confident: they explicitly guided for no Ratings acceleration in Q2 (lapping Liberation Day disruption creates a favorable compare, but hyperscaler pull-forward in Q1 is not expected to repeat at the same magnitude), and flagged that Energy revenue growth would fall below the full-year guidance range in Q2 before recovering in H2. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus moved from ~$4.25 post-Q1 to ~$4.56 currently, tracking guidance rather than diverging, which limits both upside surprise and downside risk. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 materially since last earnings (down ~1.4% vs. SPY +3.9% since April 28), with the multiple compressing ~4% on a P/E basis over 3 months, suggesting the stock has not priced in a beat and the bar is not stretched. The key wildcard is the Mobility spin-off recast: SPGI published pro forma financials on July 6 excluding Mobility, and Q2 will be the first quarter reported on the new four-division structure (Ratings, Market Intelligence, Energy, Indices) with updated guidance — any guidance raise or positive tone on the new standalone basis could be a meaningful catalyst.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar across all four divisions. Ratings transaction revenue is the biggest swing factor — strong issuance volumes confirmed by Moody’s Q2 print suggest upside risk, while the mix shift toward lower-yielding frequent issuers (hyperscalers, banks) could temper the revenue yield. Market Intelligence subscription acceleration is the second key watch item, as management explicitly guided for it in Q2.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Sources: Total Revenue (Excl. Mobility), Adj. Diluted EPS (Excl. Mobility), Ratings Revenue, Market Intelligence Revenue, Indices Revenue, Energy Revenue, and Adj. Operating Margin from Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q1 2026 actuals from SPGI Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 28, 2026). FY 2026 guidance from SPGI Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript and Earnings Release.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters — Top 2 KPIs)

KPI 1: Adj. Diluted EPS (Excl. Mobility / Operating)

Pattern: SPGI has beaten EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses (Q4 2024 and Q4 2025) both occurring in seasonally weaker Q4 periods. The beat rate is strong and consistent, with Q1 2026 delivering the largest beat (+4.5%) in the trailing eight quarters. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

KPI 2: Ratings Revenue (Operating)

Pattern: Ratings Revenue has beaten consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with beats averaging ~6–8% above consensus — a remarkably consistent pattern of conservative sell-side estimates. The sole miss (Q4 2025, -1.0%) was modest and driven by seasonality. This history suggests the Q2 2026 consensus of $1,298M may again prove conservative given Moody’s Q2 2026 confirmation of 25% ratings revenue growth and $2T+ rated issuance. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance is largely unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call, with one notable exception: Energy organic growth guidance was cut by ~1 percentage point due to the Iran conflict. The Mobility spin-off (completed July 1, 2026) means Q2 will be the first quarter reported on the new four-division structure, and updated standalone guidance will be issued for the first time on July 28 — this is the most important guidance event since the Q1 print.

Source: SPGI Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (April 28, 2026); SPGI Q1 2026 Earnings Release; SPGI 8-K/A (July 6, 2026) — Pro Forma and Recast Financial Results.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print across all key KPIs, tracking guidance rather than diverging. The EPS revision is the most notable — Q2 2026 EPS consensus has risen ~7% since the post-Q1 baseline, reflecting the strong Q1 beat and confidence in the underlying trajectory. The gap between consensus and guidance is narrow, suggesting limited room for a guidance-driven re-rating unless SPGI raises the bar on July 28.

Estimates have tracked guidance closely since the Q1 print, with the most notable upward revision in Q2 EPS (+7.3%) reflecting the strong Q1 beat and lower share count from accelerated buybacks. The slight downward drift in Market Intelligence consensus (-0.6%) is worth monitoring — if subscription acceleration materializes as guided, this could be a source of upside. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; SPGI Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: SPGI has underperformed both XLF and the S&P 500 since the Q1 earnings date (April 28, 2026), driven primarily by multiple compression (-4% on P/E over 3 months) rather than estimate cuts. The stock’s recent recovery from its June lows (driven by the Mobility spin completion and pro forma recast on July 1–6) suggests sentiment is improving, but the stock has not priced in a beat — creating an asymmetric setup heading into July 28.

Performance Summary (April 28 — July 24, 2026):

Key Price Events Since Q1 Earnings:

• Apr 28–May 12: Stock drifted lower from $433 to ~$424 as macro uncertainty weighed on the multiple despite the strong Q1 beat.
• May 13: Sharp drop to ~$407 on broader market weakness; SPGI underperformed as growth/quality names de-rated.
• Jun 23–Jun 25: Stock hit its post-earnings trough of ~$395 as Iran conflict concerns and Energy guidance cut weighed on sentiment.
• Jul 1–6: Strong recovery to $447 as Mobility spin-off completed (July 1) and SPGI published pro forma recast financials (July 6), removing Mobility overhang and clarifying the new four-division structure.
• Jul 16: Intraday high of $457 before pulling back to $426 by July 24 as the market digested the recast and awaited Q2 results.

Valuation Context: NTM P/E of 20.1x vs. 29.0x one year ago represents a 30.7% multiple compression over 12 months, driven by the broader de-rating of high-quality data/analytics names. The 3-month P/E compression of ~4% (-6.7% from 21.5x to 20.1x) suggests the market has not re-rated SPGI higher despite the Q1 beat, leaving room for a positive re-rating if Q2 results and new standalone guidance impress. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); SPGI Stock Performance Decomposition.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The Mobility spin-off completion (July 1) is the most consequential development since Q1 earnings — it removes a major structural overhang, triggers the first standalone four-division guidance update on July 28, and unlocks ~$2B in Mobility debt proceeds for buybacks. The MI leadership vacuum (Saugata Saha departure effective July 30) is the key risk to monitor for tone and forward confidence.

• July 1, 2026 — Mobility Global (MBGL) Spin-Off Completed: SPGI completed the separation of its Mobility division into an independent public company (NYSE: MBGL). The spin was executed at 12:01 a.m. on July 1 with a record date of June 15. This is the most significant structural event since the IHS Markit merger — SPGI now operates as a pure-play four-division company (Ratings, Market Intelligence, Energy, Indices). Implication: Q2 2026 will be the first quarter reported on the new structure, and management will issue updated standalone guidance for the first time.
• July 6, 2026 — Pro Forma Recast Financials Published: SPGI published recast financial results excluding Mobility for FY 2025, all four quarters of 2025, and Q1 2026, along with updated segment information reflecting new business lines in Energy and Market Intelligence and revised expense allocation methodologies. Implication: Provides the clean baseline for Q2 comparisons and consensus re-anchoring; new FY 2026 guidance (excl. Mobility) to be issued July 28.
• July 6, 2026 — Chief Legal Officer Steven Kemps to Retire: EVP and CLO Steven Kemps notified SPGI of his decision to retire effective December 31, 2026. A successor search has been launched. Implication: Routine leadership transition; not a material near-term risk to operations or earnings.
• July 30, 2026 (effective) — Market Intelligence President Saugata Saha Departure: Saha, President of Market Intelligence and Chief Enterprise Data Officer, is departing to become CEO of a technology company. The Enterprise Data Organization (EDO) has been moved under CTO Firdaus Bhathena. A broader MI leadership review is underway. Implication: Creates near-term uncertainty around MI strategy and execution; management has emphasized the revenue transformation foundation is solid, but investor focus on MI subscription acceleration makes this a key watch item for Q2 tone.
• April 28, 2026 — Energy Guidance Cut (Iran Conflict): At Q1 earnings, SPGI lowered Energy organic CC revenue growth guidance by ~1 percentage point to 4.5–6%, citing the Iran conflict’s direct impact on subscription revenue and near-term sales pipeline. Management guided Q2 Energy growth to fall below the full-year range before recovering in H2. Implication: Energy is the known weak spot for Q2; the key question is whether the disruption has stabilized as management assumed.
• April 24, 2026 — Upstream Software Portfolio Divestiture to SLB Announced: SPGI signed an agreement to divest the geoscience and petroleum engineering software portfolio within its Energy division to SLB. The portfolio represents ~25% of Upstream revenues. Expected to close H2 2026 or early 2027. Implication: Allows Energy to refocus on proprietary data and insights; a new distribution partnership with SLB was established. Modest near-term revenue headwind but strategically positive.
• Q1 2026 — AI Adoption Metrics Accelerating: Over 300 customers under contract or in trial for Kensho LLM-ready APIs (up from ~150 in March); API call volumes grew 5x quarter-over-quarter (doubling from February to March alone); ACV growth among AI customers in Market Intelligence running 30% higher than non-AI customers; Energy AI customers growing at double the rate of other energy customers. Implication: AI monetization is moving from narrative to measurable commercial traction — a key watch item for Q2 update.
• May 2026 — Mobility Investor Day and Debt Offering: Mobility Global hosted its Investor Day on May 12 in New York City and priced a multi-billion dollar debt offering in May 2026. Proceeds (~$2B) are expected to fund a cash payment to SPGI for incremental share repurchases and some debt reduction. Implication: Accelerates SPGI’s buyback program; management guided for ≥100% of adj. FCF returned in 2026 (~$4.5B in buybacks).
• June 10, 2026 — Mizuho Technology Conference Presentation: SPGI presented at the Mizuho Technology Conference 2026. No material guidance changes were disclosed. Implication: Consistent with management’s practice of not pre-announcing guidance changes at conferences.

7. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Three open-market purchases by senior insiders — including the CEO & President and the CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices — clustered within days of the Q1 earnings release are a meaningfully bullish signal. All three were discretionary (no 10b5-1 plan), and the CEO’s purchase of 2,322 shares at ~$433 is the most notable given its size and timing.

All three transactions were open-market purchases (Form 4, code P) with no 10b5-1 plan, executed within three trading days of the Q1 2026 earnings release. The clustering of CEO, divisional CEO, and director purchases at prices of ~$430–$433 — near current levels — is a constructive signal. No insider sales have been filed in the period since Q1 earnings. Source: SEC Form 4 Filings — Cheung (Apr 29, 2026), Clay (May 1, 2026), Moritz (Apr 30, 2026).

8. Peer Commentary Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Moody’s (Q2 2026 earnings, July 22), MSCI (Q2 2026 earnings, July 21), and FactSet (Q3 FY2026 earnings, July 1) is uniformly constructive for SPGI’s Q2 print. Moody’s confirmed 25% Ratings revenue growth and $2T+ rated issuance for the second consecutive quarter — the strongest direct read-through. MSCI’s record AUM and 25% ABF run-rate growth support Indices upside. FactSet’s 7.1% organic ASV acceleration and AI-driven retention gains support Market Intelligence subscription momentum.

Note on scope: Only commentary addressing Q2 2026 (current reporting quarter) conditions or forward-looking statements made after April 28, 2026 is included below. Retrospective commentary about prior-quarter results has been excluded.

8.1 Moody’s Corporation (MCO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 22, 2026)

Ratings Issuance & Transaction Revenue — Strongest Direct Read-Through

• Moody’s Investor Service (MIS) transaction revenue grew 34% in Q2 2026, and Moody’s rated more than $2 trillion of debt for the second consecutive quarter — up 33% year-over-year and 20% year-to-date. Overall Ratings revenue grew 25% with broad-based strength across all asset classes. Read-through: This is the single most important data point for SPGI’s Ratings segment. If Moody’s saw 25% revenue growth and $2T+ issuance, SPGI’s Ratings segment — which has beaten consensus by 4–12% in 7 of the last 8 quarters — is likely to deliver a meaningful beat vs. the $1,298M consensus.
• Moody’s upgraded its full-year 2026 issuance growth outlook to mid-single digit percent growth (from low-single digit), driven by refinancing, AI-related investment, private credit, digital finance, energy transition, and emerging markets. Even excluding AI data center and hyperscaler activity, issuance still grew double digits year-to-date. Read-through: Positive for SPGI’s full-year Ratings outlook; the breadth of issuance drivers reduces concentration risk.
• Critical nuance — Moody’s noted the issuance upside came with a mix that was “a bit less rich than expected,” with more growth from data center and financial institution transactions that carry lower average yields due to deal size and pricing programs. Hyperscaler and large transactions drove strong issuance in H1, but these issuers carry lower average revenue yields. Read-through: Volume growth may not translate one-for-one into revenue growth for SPGI either — the mix toward frequent investment-grade issuers (hyperscalers, banks) is “revenue mix unfriendly.” This is consistent with SPGI management’s own Q1 guidance that hyperscalers are not in the frequent issuer program and pay per transaction, but the broader IG mix shift is a margin/yield headwind.
• Moody’s expects low single-digit MIS revenue growth in Q3 as market activity slows through the summer, with Q4 revenue roughly flat versus prior year — consistent with normal seasonality. Read-through: Confirms SPGI management’s own Q1 guidance that Ratings growth will moderate in Q3 and turn negative in Q4 as prior-year highs are lapped. Q2 is the peak quarter for Ratings.
• Private credit grew more than 40% in private credit-related transactions vs. Q2 last year, with over 110 new first-time mandates in Q2. Moody’s highlighted private credit pushing into “retailization” as a structural tailwind requiring greater transparency and common risk language. Read-through: SPGI’s Ratings private markets revenues grew over 25% in Q1 2026; Moody’s data suggests this momentum continued or accelerated in Q2.
• M&A pickup “continued into this year” and the private equity exit/M&A cycle “hassn’t really kicked into high gear yet” — framed as upside when it does. High-yield spreads remain tight by historical averages and the spec-grade default rate outlook continues to decline. Read-through: Constructive for SPGI’s leveraged finance and structured finance ratings revenue in Q2 and beyond.

Data/Analytics Subscription Demand

• Moody’s Analytics (MA) recurring revenue grew nearly 9% in Q2 2026 on an organic constant currency basis, with trailing 12-month retention at 95%. ARR ended the quarter at nearly 9% YoY growth and remains on track for high single-digit growth for the full year. Decision Solutions (44% of MA) delivered 10% ARR growth; KYC grew 13%. Read-through: Strong and consistent ARR growth in analytics confirms robust demand for financial data and workflow solutions — positive for SPGI’s Market Intelligence subscription trajectory.
• Moody’s is seeing a trend toward embedding solutions into critical workflows rather than standalone products, leading to larger, stickier relationships and greater expansion opportunities. A megacap e-commerce/tech company more than doubled RR since end-2024, expanding from a targeted credit decisioning use case to a broader workflow deployment. Read-through: Validates SPGI’s strategy of deepening enterprise relationships through integrated data and analytics — the MI subscription acceleration guided for Q2 is consistent with this industry trend.

AI Monetization

• Moody’s has over 100 MCP and smart API connections being used and trialed by customers, with partnerships with Amazon (Moody’s Connected Intelligence in Amazon Q) and Microsoft (first AI skill on Microsoft 365 Copilot). The commercial approach is currently a “bring-your-own license model” focused on driving embeddedness and usage rather than consumption-based pricing. Read-through: AI monetization is still in early stages for both Moody’s and SPGI — the focus on embeddedness over immediate revenue is consistent with SPGI’s own framing. The 100+ MCP connections at Moody’s compares to SPGI’s 300+ Kensho API customers, suggesting SPGI may be slightly ahead on AI distribution.
• Moody’s is expanding its restructuring program by $100M and extending through year-end 2027, targeting $300–$350M in annualized savings from AI-driven efficiencies. In ratings operations, ~25% of quality-check steps have been automated with agents, generating “very significant savings in time and improvement in QA.” Read-through: AI-driven cost savings are becoming a measurable margin driver across the ratings industry — consistent with SPGI’s own agentic SDLC initiative and enterprise data organization AI integration.

Margins

• Moody’s achieved 440 bps of enterprise adjusted operating margin expansion to 55.3% in Q2 2026, with MIS margin expanding 410 bps to 68.3% and MA margin expanding 150 bps to 33.6%. MIS margin expansion was driven by absorbing significantly higher transaction volumes without commensurate cost increases. Read-through: Strong operating leverage in ratings at high issuance volumes is a direct positive read-through for SPGI’s Ratings margin in Q2 2026. SPGI’s Ratings margin was 67.8% in Q1 2026 — a similar dynamic could push it above 68% in Q2.

8.2 Moody’s Corporation (MCO) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 28, 2026)

Ratings Issuance & Market Conditions (Forward-Looking, Q2 2026)

• CEO Robert Fauber stated Moody’s did not change its guidance in Q1 despite market volatility, noting the market is “pretty constructive right now” and “spreads have come back in since the start of the war.” He highlighted that ~80% of U.S. investment-grade issuance in March came in just 6 days, demonstrating that “there’s a lot of financing demand” waiting for risk-on windows. Read-through: As of late May, the issuance environment was constructive and pent-up demand was evident — supportive of strong Q2 Ratings volumes for SPGI.
• Hyperscaler issuance was “really strong in Q1” and Fauber stated “I don’t think we’re done with that” — framing it as one of the “medium-term funding drivers.” M&A “picked up in the back half of last year and continued into this year.” The private equity exit/M&A cycle “hassn’t really kicked into high gear yet” — framed as upside when it does. Read-through: Consistent with SPGI’s own Q1 guidance; hyperscaler and M&A issuance continued into Q2, supporting Ratings revenue.
• Fauber noted that frequent investment-grade issuers (hyperscalers, banks) are on a “different pricing construct” that can be “revenue mix unfriendly” — issuance growth higher than revenue growth. Speculative grade, CMBS, and CLO issuance is “revenue mix friendly.” Read-through: Important nuance for SPGI — while SPGI noted hyperscalers are NOT in the frequent issuer program (pay per transaction), the broader IG mix shift still creates a yield headwind vs. a more balanced issuance mix.

AI Monetization & Data Defensibility

• Moody’s is integrating its intelligence into third-party platforms (Microsoft Teams, Copilot) with a “bring-your-own license model,” generating “in the teens” number of engagements with major financial institutions within weeks of announcement, with “a handful” already in active pilot discussions. Revenue generation will follow new agreements with new pricing opportunities. Read-through: AI distribution via third-party platforms is gaining commercial traction across the industry — SPGI’s Kensho MCP connector strategy is on the same trajectory, with 300+ customers already under contract or in trial.
• Fauber emphasized the defensibility of proprietary data assets: exclusive research, a 30-year contributory default database, catastrophe models built from contributed insurance claims data, and a massive company database curated through hundreds of commercial relationships. The value lies in “derived and transformed data” such as ownership hierarchies. Read-through: Validates SPGI’s own data moat thesis — proprietary benchmarks, ratings, and curated data are defensible against AI disruption in ways that undifferentiated data is not.

8.3 MSCI Inc. (MSCI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 21, 2026)

Index-Linked AUM, Asset Flows & Pricing — Key Read-Through for SPGI Indices

• MSCI reported record ETF and non-ETF AUM balances in products linked to MSCI indices, achieving its “best ever asset-based fee run rate” of $948M, growing 25% YoY. Total ETF AUM linked to MSCI indices grew by more than $1 trillion over the past 15 months to more than $2.8 trillion, supported by ~$40 billion in ETF inflows in Q2. Non-ETF passive AUM stood at ~$5 trillion as of June 30. Read-through: Record AUM levels and strong inflows confirm a robust market environment for index providers heading into Q2 reporting. SPGI’s S&P Dow Jones Indices segment — which grew 17% in Q1 2026 — is likely to benefit from similar AUM tailwinds, particularly given the S&P 500’s scale (tens of trillions of AUM).
• MSCI noted that asset growth and inflows “predominantly occurred in clients’ products linked to developed markets, ex-U.S. and all-country indexes, some of which carry lower fees,” contributing to mix-driven fee compression. MSCI also has “lower floors on certain large products.” Read-through: Fee compression from mix shift is an MSCI-specific dynamic (international vs. U.S. index mix); SPGI’s Indices segment is more concentrated in the S&P 500 ecosystem, which carries higher and more stable fee rates. This is a relative positive for SPGI vs. MSCI.
• MSCI noted “exceptional cash flows into ETFs linked to our indexes” continuing “over the last few weeks in the third quarter.” Read-through: Positive forward signal for SPGI’s Indices asset-linked fee trajectory into Q3 2026.

Data/Analytics Subscription Demand

• MSCI reported organic subscription growth of over 8% with retention above 95%. Hedge fund subscription run rate grew 15%, with MSCI’s best quarter on record for recurring net new sales (+75% growth). Asset owners delivered 9% subscription run rate growth with best Q2 on record for recurring net new sales (+43%). Analytics organic subscription run rate grew 7%. Read-through: Strong and broad-based subscription demand across client types is a positive read-through for SPGI’s Market Intelligence subscription acceleration guided for Q2.
• MSCI launched 80+ new products in the last two quarters (vs. 40+ in all of 2024), with new product contribution to new sales up ~40% YoY in H1 2026. Read-through: Innovation velocity is a key driver of subscription growth across the industry — SPGI’s Kensho product roadmap (skills-based agentic workflows, MCP connectors) is on a similar trajectory.

Private Markets

• MSCI’s Private Capital Solutions (PCS) segment delivered 16% subscription run rate growth and 57% recurring net new sales growth in Q2, driven by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds embracing total portfolio solutions. MSCI secured a major new agreement with one of the world’s largest public pension funds and a seven-figure deal with a sovereign wealth fund. A new strategic partnership with UBS extends private asset solutions to wealth managers. Read-through: Strong private markets demand is a positive read-through for SPGI’s Market Intelligence private markets offerings and Ratings private markets revenues (which grew 25%+ in Q1 2026).
• MSCI’s private markets segment is ~$300M in run rate and growing, with the company “just getting started on the acceleration.” Key growth drivers: benchmarking, classification, indexation, and total portfolio management. Read-through: The private markets data and analytics TAM is expanding rapidly — SPGI’s enterprise-level private markets revenues exceeded $600M for FY 2025, positioning it as a larger and more diversified player in this space.

AI Monetization

• MSCI has over 1,000 clients using Index AI Insights (launched February 2026), with hundreds of companies accessing total plan manager and private capital Intel solutions through preferred AI models. MSCI signed its first “training license” giving a client the right to train a model using MSCI content, and sees demand from a wider range of clients for the same. Read-through: Training licenses represent a new monetization avenue that SPGI could also explore — SPGI management has noted frontier model partners are not permitted to train on SPGI IP (data sits on SPGI servers), but the commercial structure could evolve.
• MSCI uses a “data licensing model” rather than per-token consumption pricing for AI-enabled data delivery. Read-through: Consistent with SPGI’s own approach of enterprise value-based pricing rather than seat-based or usage-only models — validates the industry direction.

8.4 MSCI Inc. (MSCI) — Private Assets Business Update Webinar (June 25, 2026)

• MSCI’s Head of Private Assets Luke Flemmer highlighted “huge secular tailwinds behind total portfolio” management, driven by increasing capital flows from a broader range of investors including wealth flows and 401K adoption discussions. Private assets now represent “20–30%” of some institutional investors’ allocations. Read-through: Structural demand for private market data, benchmarks, and analytics is accelerating — positive for SPGI’s private markets strategy across all four divisions.
• MSCI’s private asset classification system (PACS) and real estate classification system (CRACS) are already embedded in products with “strong adoption from an asset owner perspective,” and MSCI is seeing interest from managers and custodians to adopt these as a “uniform way to talk about these assets.” MSCI has ~400 private asset benchmarks. Read-through: The race to establish classification and benchmarking standards in private markets is intensifying — SPGI’s Indices division launched the first private loan series index (in partnership with Lincoln) in Q1 2026, positioning it competitively.
• MSCI noted “very good uptake from MCP” with “a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of client adoption” for private market data available through OpenAI. Read-through: MCP adoption for private market data is gaining traction industry-wide — SPGI’s Kensho MCP connectors are on the same trajectory.
• Flemmer noted that private credit has seen “significant growth” but also “some stress here recently,” with MSCI partnering with Moody’s to provide “implied ratings on loan books.” MSCI launched products for private equity and private credit (direct lending) providing “NAV forecasts” and “real-time pricing on funds.” Read-through: Private credit stress is manageable and is driving demand for transparency tools — consistent with SPGI management’s Q1 characterization of private credit issues as “idiosyncratic rather than structural.” The demand for real-time pricing and NAV forecasting is a growth opportunity for SPGI’s Market Intelligence and Ratings segments.

8.5 FactSet Research Systems (FDS) — Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Call (July 1, 2026)

Data/Analytics Subscription Demand — Key Read-Through for SPGI Market Intelligence

• FactSet reported its fifth consecutive quarter of organic ASV growth acceleration, with organic ASV reaching 7.1% YoY — its highest growth rate since Q1 2020. Growth was evident across all regions and client types: Americas +7%, EMEA +5%, Asia Pacific +10%. Wealth management (fastest-growing category) delivered 10% organic ASV growth; institutional buy side accelerated to 6%. User count is up 12% YoY. Read-through: Accelerating subscription demand across all client types and geographies is a strong positive read-through for SPGI’s Market Intelligence subscription acceleration guided for Q2 2026.
• FactSet’s ASV retention rates are above 95%, pipeline conversion from marketing activity increased 15% YoY, and win rates improved 27%. Bookings as of end-June/early July are “ahead of last year.” Read-through: Strong retention and improving commercial metrics confirm the underlying health of the financial data subscription market — supportive of SPGI’s MI subscription acceleration narrative.

AI Monetization

• FactSet reported that ASV growth among clients using AI solutions was 50% higher than for the rest of the book, with over 10% of ASV growth coming directly from AI SKUs (up from virtually zero last year). One of the top-10 banks doubled its data subscriptions because of AI; a hedge fund grew 6x because of MCP delivery. Over 20% of FactSet’s top 100 clients are using MCP on a paid basis. Read-through: AI is a measurable and accelerating driver of subscription growth — directly validates SPGI’s own data point that ACV growth among AI customers in Market Intelligence is running 30% higher than non-AI customers.
• API call volume grew 13x in Q3 vs. Q2 at FactSet, with the company expecting continued growth as more datasets are made available through MCP. The AI transition is accelerating a shift from seat-linked contracts to flexible enterprise agreements, with average contract terms extending ~30% while “broadly preserving pricing.” Read-through: SPGI’s own API call volumes grew 5x QoQ in Q1 2026 (doubling from February to March alone) — FactSet’s 13x QoQ growth in Q3 suggests the industry trajectory is steeper than SPGI’s Q1 data implied, potentially indicating further acceleration at SPGI in Q2.

Margins & Pricing

• FactSet’s price increases in Q3 were “better than what we were able to achieve at the same quarter last year,” reflecting “the continued increase in value and flexibility” delivered to clients. The company confirmed it is “not taking any price compression in return for contract extensions.” Read-through: Financial data providers are maintaining or improving pricing power as AI enhances product value — positive for SPGI’s ability to sustain subscription revenue growth without sacrificing price.
• FactSet is rolling out AI agents for “sustainable productivity improvements,” with coding agents now authoring 27% of committed code and operator touch time for data table extraction reduced by more than 50%. FactSet initiated a ~10% reduction in its technology workforce. Read-through: AI-driven productivity gains are becoming a measurable margin driver across the industry — consistent with SPGI’s own agentic SDLC initiative and enterprise data organization AI integration expected to generate meaningful run-rate benefit in 2027.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Sources: MCO Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 22, 2026); MCO Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference transcript (May 28, 2026); MSCI Q2 2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 21, 2026); MSCI Private Assets Business Update Webinar transcript (June 25, 2026); FDS Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call transcript (July 1, 2026). All commentary included is forward-looking or addresses current Q2 2026 conditions; retrospective prior-quarter commentary has been excluded.

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