STX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
STX Report Revenue (FQ4'26) BEAT pred ~$3.56B vs. cons $3.49B MEDIUM
STX Report Non-GAAP EPS (FQ4'26) BEAT pred ~$5.30 vs. cons $5.10 MEDIUM
STX Report Non-GAAP gross margin (FQ4'26) BEAT pred ~48.5% vs. cons ~47.3% MEDIUM
STX Report FQ1'27 revenue guide BEAT guide ~$3.75B vs. cons ~$3.62B (Sep-qtr FQ1'27) MEDIUM
STX Report FQ1'27 non-GAAP EPS guide BEAT guide ~$5.70 vs. cons ~$5.45 (Sep-qtr FQ1'27) MEDIUM
STX Report FY27 revenue growth framework BEAT guide ~20%+ growth (~$15B+) vs. cons ~$14.5B (FY2027) LOW
STX Report Capital return / buyback pivot BEAT guide majority of FCF to buybacks + $0.74 div vs. cons ~$0.74 div only (FY27) LOW
STX Guide FQ1'27 revenue guide BETTER guide ~$3.75B vs. cons ~$3.62B (Sep-qtr FQ1'27) MEDIUM
STX Guide FQ1'27 non-GAAP EPS guide BETTER guide ~$5.70 vs. cons ~$5.45 (Sep-qtr FQ1'27) MEDIUM
STX Guide FQ1'27 non-GAAP operating margin BETTER guide low-40s% (~42%) vs. cons ~41% (Sep-qtr FQ1'27) LOW
STX Guide FY27 multi-year growth target BETTER guide 20%+ growth vs. cons ~15-18% (~$14.5B FY2027) LOW
STX Guide Capital allocation shift to buybacks BETTER guide majority of FCF to repurchase vs. cons debt-paydown/div-only (FY27) LOW
STX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% LOW
STX Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (STABILIZE) A beat-and-raise (rev/EPS above guide, FQ1'27 and FY27 framework above Street plus a buyback pivot) drives a relief pop into a stock that already de-risked ~25% from its ~$1,094 June peak to $817. But valuation/positioning are stretched after a ~5.5x run, HDD/memory sentiment has cooled (WDC collapsed ~33% off recent highs into the print), and the out-period is near-fully-allocated with flat units, so upside revisions are modest and multiple compression caps follow-through. Net: the day-1 gain largely holds but does not extend materially amid high two-way volatility. LOW