I'll research STX (Seagate Technology) before writing the earnings preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials (Q3 FY2026) and gather more news context.I have strong fundamentals. Let me get recent stock price action and check the latest news/estimates context.Let me get sell-side context and any read-through from peers/analysts via web search.# Seagate Technology (STX) — Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Preview
The single most important context going into this print is what the stock has done. STX began July 2025 around $145 and has been one of the market's most extraordinary large-cap moves — peaking above $1,090 in late June 2026 before pulling back to roughly $817 at the July 27 close. That's still an ~5.5x gain in twelve months, driven almost entirely by the AI-storage demand narrative and a dramatic re-rating of the HDD group.
The consequence: the bar is very high, and sentiment has cooled at the margin. The stock is down meaningfully from its June peak and has been volatile in July (a swing from ~$1,094 on June 22 to $745 on July 16, back to ~$913 on July 23, then down again). Sell-side targets have been hiked aggressively into the print — Wedbush went to $1,000 (from $825) the day before earnings, UBS to $860, Wells Fargo to $1,100 (Overweight), with some Street targets as high as ~$1,240 and an average near ~$1,000. When targets and expectations are this stretched, the risk skews toward "beat-and-still-sell-off" unless the forward commentary clears an elevated hurdle.
From the fiscal Q3 (March quarter) report on April 28, management guided fiscal Q4:
| Metric | Guidance | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.45B ± $100M | ~41% YoY growth at midpoint |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $5.00 ± $0.20 | ~2x+ YoY |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | Low-40% range | continued sequential expansion |
| Tax rate | ~16% | — |
| Diluted share count | ~231M | incl. ~3M dilution from 2028 converts |
Street consensus sits slightly above the guide midpoint: revenue of roughly $3.49B (~43% YoY) and EPS around $5.10 (Zacks), implying a nearly ~97% YoY EPS increase. Note some data services show a lower ~$4.89 print — worth reconciling against the ~$5.10 Zacks figure, but the guide midpoint is $5.00. STX has beaten EPS in each of the last four quarters.
This will also be the full-year FY2026 print. Street looks for FY26 revenue near ~$12.0B and EPS in the ~$14.1–$14.9 range.
The March quarter was a blowout and frames the trajectory: - Revenue $3.11B, +44% YoY, +10% sequentially - Record margins: non-GAAP gross margin 47.0% (+180bps q/q); non-GAAP operating margin 37.5% (+560bps q/q) - Non-GAAP EPS $4.10, +115% YoY - Free cash flow $953M (~31% FCF margin) — highest in over a decade - Data center was 80% of revenue / 88% of exabytes; nearline ~90% of exabyte shipments - Incremental gross margins running ~70%+, well above the ~50% framework from the 2024 Analyst Day
Balance sheet inflection is a key part of the story: Seagate retired $641M of debt in the quarter (~$1.1B YTD FY26), cut net leverage to 0.7x, swung to positive shareholders' equity, and earned a Fitch upgrade to investment grade.
1. FY2027 framework / forward guidance. This is the swing factor. Management has said it expects sequential revenue and margin growth through all of fiscal 2027, and has raised its multi-year revenue growth target from "low-to-mid teens" to a minimum of 20%. With build-to-order contracts now finalized through FY27 and nearline capacity "almost fully allocated through calendar 2027," investors will want the June-quarter guide and any explicit FY27 color to validate the ~$50+ EPS power some bulls are underwriting. Anything that reads as a plateau vs. continued sequential acceleration is the key risk.
2. Pricing / revenue-per-terabyte. The margin story is fundamentally a value-based pricing story — data-center revenue per TB rose mid-single-digits YoY in Q3. Watch whether pricing keeps climbing as new LTAs roll on, and whether management gives any more granularity on FY27 price-per-exabyte. Management has consistently declined to guide pricing far out but pointed to "no change in strategy" and continued profit growth.
3. HAMR / Mozaic ramp. Mozaic 4 (up to 44TB, 4TB/disk) began revenue shipments in late March and is expected to be the majority of HAMR exabytes exiting calendar 2026, with overall HAMR exabyte crossover around the same time. Two of the largest CSPs qualified on the 4+TB/disk product. Look for updates on the remaining CSP qualifications, yield/ramp progress, and Mozaic 5 (50TB, qual targeted late CY2027). This is what underpins the cost-down and margin-expansion thesis.
4. Capital allocation pivot. With leverage low and FCF surging, management flagged a shift from debt paydown toward buybacks. Roughly ~$400M of 2028 convertibles remain to be addressed; after that, "the majority" of cash is earmarked for repurchases. The dividend was raised to $0.74/quarter. Any formal buyback authorization or accelerated repurchase would be a positive catalyst given the stock's move.
5. Demand durability / AI narrative. Management leaned heavily on AI-driven data creation (inference, agentic AI, physical AI/video), and cited top-3 CSP RPO nearly doubling to ~$1.1T. The bull case rests on this being structural rather than a cyclical bubble — expect pointed analyst questions on visibility into calendar 2028.
Fundamentally, Seagate enters this print with everything working: record margins, ~$1B/quarter FCF, an investment-grade balance sheet, a supply-constrained/allocated order book through 2027, and a HAMR roadmap driving structural cost-down. The guide to beat is ~$3.45B revenue / $5.00 EPS, with the Street modestly above at ~$3.49B / ~$5.10.
The debate is no longer whether the quarter is good — it's whether the FY2027 outlook and pricing commentary can justify a stock that has already appreciated ~5.5x and now trades near the low end of a stretched target range. Expect the after-hours reaction to be driven far more by the forward guide and capital-return pivot than by the June-quarter results themselves.
Note: Figures above are drawn from Seagate's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and call, company guidance, market data through July 27, 2026, and third-party consensus/analyst commentary. Consensus estimates vary by source (EPS ~$4.89–$5.10); treat them as approximate.