| SW |
Report |
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.19B vs. cons ~$1.15B |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Report |
Q2 Net sales |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$7.95B vs. cons ~$7.92B |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Report |
Q2 Adjusted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.47 vs. cons ~$0.46 |
LOW |
| SW |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5.0–5.3B (mid ~$5.15B) vs. cons ~$5.15B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
NA containerboard pricing endorsement (out-period) |
BETTER |
guide embeds ~+$50/ton vs. new ~+$80/ton IP round announced (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
Q3 2026 implied Adjusted EBITDA sequential |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~$1.25–1.35B vs. cons ~$1.30B (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| SW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.0% (FADE) |
Stock ran +16% in three sessions and ~28% YTD into the print, so the demand/pricing thesis is largely priced. Base case is a guide reaffirm (not a raise) against a Q2 midpoint that is down ~5% YoY vs. $1,213M — 'sell-the-news' risk even on a modest EBITDA beat. Out-period math (reaffirmed $5.0–5.3B implying no upward revision despite the fresh $80/ton round) keeps FY estimates capped, so post-print profit-taking continues; strong industry tape cushions but does not reverse the fade over 5 days. |
MEDIUM |