{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.19B vs. cons ~$1.15B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Net sales",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.95B vs. cons ~$7.92B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.47 vs. cons ~$0.46",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.0\u20135.3B (mid ~$5.15B) vs. cons ~$5.15B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NA containerboard pricing endorsement (out-period)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide embeds ~+$50/ton vs. new ~+$80/ton IP round announced (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 implied Adjusted EBITDA sequential",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.25\u20131.35B vs. cons ~$1.30B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran +16% in three sessions and ~28% YTD into the print, so the demand/pricing thesis is largely priced. Base case is a guide reaffirm (not a raise) against a Q2 midpoint that is down ~5% YoY vs. $1,213M \u2014 'sell-the-news' risk even on a modest EBITDA beat. Out-period math (reaffirmed $5.0\u20135.3B implying no upward revision despite the fresh $80/ton round) keeps FY estimates capped, so post-print profit-taking continues; strong industry tape cushions but does not reverse the fade over 5 days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}