| SW |
Report |
Net Sales / Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$8.05B vs. cons $7.91B |
HIGH |
| SW |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.17B vs. cons ~$1.15B |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.40 vs. cons $0.42 |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5.0-5.3B reaffirmed (~$5.15B midpoint) vs. cons ~$5.15B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (implied by commentary) |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~$1.30B vs. cons ~$1.34B (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| SW |
Guide |
FY2026 Energy Cost Headwind (full-year bridge update) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$280M vs. prior guide ~$270-290M i.e. ~$280M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock already re-rated ~17% pre-print on PKG/IP-driven containerboard price-hike optimism, front-loading much of the good news. A likely Rev/EBITDA beat but 4th-straight EPS miss, plus a tripled full-year energy/freight cost bridge since February, means FY26 EBITDA guidance is more likely reaffirmed than raised. That reaffirmation, against expectations primed for an explicit raise after PKG's $140/ton and IP's $80/ton hikes, implies analysts trim H2/FY26 EBITDA-per-ton and EPS estimates even after a Q2 beat, extending an initial soft reaction into a modest multi-day drift lower as the pre-earnings rally partially unwinds. |
LOW |