{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales / Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.05B vs. cons $7.91B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.17B vs. cons ~$1.15B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.40 vs. cons $0.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.0-5.3B reaffirmed (~$5.15B midpoint) vs. cons ~$5.15B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (implied by commentary)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide/implied ~$1.30B vs. cons ~$1.34B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Energy Cost Headwind (full-year bridge update)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$280M vs. prior guide ~$270-290M i.e. ~$280M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock already re-rated ~17% pre-print on PKG/IP-driven containerboard price-hike optimism, front-loading much of the good news. A likely Rev/EBITDA beat but 4th-straight EPS miss, plus a tripled full-year energy/freight cost bridge since February, means FY26 EBITDA guidance is more likely reaffirmed than raised. That reaffirmation, against expectations primed for an explicit raise after PKG's $140/ton and IP's $80/ton hikes, implies analysts trim H2/FY26 EBITDA-per-ton and EPS estimates even after a Q2 beat, extending an initial soft reaction into a modest multi-day drift lower as the pre-earnings rally partially unwinds.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}