SW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SW Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.19B vs. cons $1.15B MEDIUM
SW Report North America adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$665M vs. cons $650M MEDIUM
SW Report Net sales IN-LINE pred ~$7.96B vs. cons $7.91B MEDIUM
SW Guide Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance LOWER guide ~$1.36B vs. cons $1.42B (2026Q3) MEDIUM
SW Guide Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$5.15B midpoint vs. cons $5.18B (FY2026) MEDIUM
SW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.7% MEDIUM
SW Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.1% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) The Q2 EBITDA beat of ~$1.19B vs. $1.15B is outweighed by Q3 guidance of ~$1.36B vs. $1.42B; the implied heavier Q4 ramp and elevated energy, freight and fiber costs drive negative out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM