| SW |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$1.14B vs. cons $1.17B |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Report |
Net sales |
MISS |
pred ~$7.78B vs. cons $7.88B |
LOW |
| SW |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.66 |
LOW |
| SW |
Guide |
FY26 adjusted EBITDA |
LOWER |
guide ~$5.15B vs. cons $5.20B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
3Q26 adjusted EBITDA implied outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~$1.27B vs. cons $1.31B (3Q26) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Guide |
FY26 energy-cost headwind |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$280M vs. cons $280M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| SW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Day-1 residual ~-4.5% vs. beta-adjusted baseline 0.0%; day-5 residual ~-2.5% vs. baseline 0.0%. A modest 2Q miss and a full-year EBITDA midpoint (~$5.15B) below consensus (~$5.20B) should initially de-risk a stock that has rallied sharply, but reaffirmed FY26 guidance and a still-improving 2H price/downtime setup should limit incremental estimate cuts and drive a partial fade of the initial selloff. |
MEDIUM |