{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.14B vs. cons $1.17B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.78B vs. cons $7.88B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.66",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.15B vs. cons $5.20B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "3Q26 adjusted EBITDA implied outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.27B vs. cons $1.31B (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 energy-cost headwind",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$280M vs. cons $280M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Day-1 residual ~-4.5% vs. beta-adjusted baseline 0.0%; day-5 residual ~-2.5% vs. baseline 0.0%. A modest 2Q miss and a full-year EBITDA midpoint (~$5.15B) below consensus (~$5.20B) should initially de-risk a stock that has rallied sharply, but reaffirmed FY26 guidance and a still-improving 2H price/downtime setup should limit incremental estimate cuts and drive a partial fade of the initial selloff.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}