SWK Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SWK Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.26 vs. cons $1.21 MEDIUM
SWK Report Adjusted Gross Margin (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~33.0% (+~280bps YoY) vs. cons ~33.2% (+~300bps YoY) MEDIUM
SWK Report Net Revenue (Q2'26) MISS pred ~$3.90B vs. cons $4.00B MEDIUM
SWK Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS (reaffirm) UNCHANGED guide ~$5.30 mid (range $4.90-$5.70) vs. cons ~$5.25 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SWK Guide Q3'26 Adjusted Gross Margin checkpoint BETTER guide ~34% vs. cons ~33.7% (Q3'26) LOW
SWK Guide FY2026 Adj GM expansion / Q4 35%+ path UNCHANGED guide ~+150bps FY & ~35% exit vs. cons ~+150bps / ~34.8% (Q4'26) MEDIUM
SWK Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow UNCHANGED guide ~$600M mid ($500-700M) vs. cons ~$600M (FY2026) LOW
SWK Guide Organic growth inflection / buyback pace UNKNOWN guide ~+LSD organic & ~$500M buyback authorization vs. cons ~+1-2% organic (Q2'26/FY) LOW
SWK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
SWK Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.5% (FADE) SWK sits near 52-wk highs (+23% YTD, +40% off April low, ~9% into the print) with Q2 guidance already public, so a modest EPS beat is largely priced in — a classic good-but-priced-in setup. History shows SWK reliably sells the news (Q1'26 ~-3%, Q2'25 ~-7% day-1). With margins only meeting the ~300bps promise and revenue optically light on the CAM step-down, there's no upside catalyst to force positive revisions; management reaffirms rather than raises the $4.90-5.70 FY range, so out-period estimates get trimmed toward the low-to-mid point, pulling the stock lower over the week. Follow-through on the initial drop as elevated expectations reset. LOW