SWK Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SWK Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.27 vs. cons $1.20 MEDIUM
SWK Report Net Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$3.95B vs. cons $3.93B MEDIUM
SWK Report Adjusted Gross Margin (Q2 2026, YoY bps) BEAT pred ~+330bps YoY (~32.3%) vs. cons/guide ~+300bps (~32.0%) MEDIUM
SWK Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance range BETTER guide ~$5.00-$5.75 (narrowed/raised low end) vs. cons ~$5.25 midpoint of prior $4.90-$5.70 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SWK Guide Full-year adjusted gross margin trajectory (path to 35%+ by Q4'26) UNCHANGED guide ~35%+ exit rate reaffirmed vs. cons ~34.8% (Q4 2026 exit) MEDIUM
SWK Guide Q3 2026 organic growth / Tools & Outdoor cadence commentary UNCHANGED guide ~low-single-digit organic growth reiterated vs. cons ~+2% organic (Q3 2026) HIGH
SWK Guide Tariff/inflation net-neutral offset assumption for FY2026 UNKNOWN guide ~net-neutral (tariff tailwind offset by battery metals/tungsten/resin inflation) reaffirmed vs. cons assuming same net-neutral ~0% net impact (FY2026) LOW
SWK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
SWK Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FADE) Stock has run up ~24% YTD and ~8% in the week pre-print, trading above most sell-side targets ($84-92 vs $94 spot), so even a clean beat-in-line-with-high-end-of-guide result is largely priced in ('sell the news'). Because FY guidance is likely only reaffirmed/modestly raised rather than raised in proportion to the Q2 beat (mirroring the Q1 pattern where the CAM-related EPS neutrality masked underlying momentum), the implicit 2H26 estimates get trimmed by the sell-side even after a Q2 beat, pulling consensus full-year EPS down slightly and causing follow-on selling/fade over the week as analysts true-up back-half numbers to the reaffirmed range rather than extrapolating Q2's outperformance. LOW