TKO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TKO Report Q2'26 Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.56B vs. cons ~$1.53B MEDIUM
TKO Report Q2'26 Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$650M vs. cons ~$625M MEDIUM
TKO Report Q2'26 Adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$1.45 vs. cons ~$1.42 LOW
TKO Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$5.75-5.85B vs. cons ~$5.73B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TKO Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance BETTER guide ~$2.29-2.34B vs. cons ~$2.27B (FY2026) MEDIUM
TKO Guide FY2026 WWE segment Adj. EBITDA margin BETTER guide ~57-59% vs. cons ~56% (FY2026) LOW
TKO Guide Capital return / buyback pace (new $1B authorization) BETTER guide ~$200M+ near-term 10b5-1 vs. cons ~$100M (H2'26) MEDIUM
TKO Guide On Location FIFA World Cup 26 hospitality sales BETTER guide >2x prior program vs. cons ~1.5x (FY2026, Q3-weighted) MEDIUM
TKO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
TKO Return 5-day cumulative residual +4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Washed-out positioning (stock ~$182, -9% YTD, near 52wk-area lows) plus a clean contracted beat and a modest FY guide raise pull estimates UP rather than down; aggressive buyback under the new $1B authorization at dislocated prices provides a bid, and Q3 World Cup revenue recognition keeps the out-period math constructive, favoring continuation over fade. Risk is a simple reaffirm (good news already known), which would cap upside. LOW