I'll research TKO Group Holdings before writing the earnings preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, and news.I'll read the most recent earnings materials and news to understand the setup going into the report.Let me gather recent news, analyst activity, and stock price performance heading into the print.Let me pull the prior-year Q2 2025 release for comparison bases and check recent late-July news.Let me check for analyst consensus estimates and any late-breaking news via web search.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

TKO Group Holdings (NYSE: TKO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports: Monday, August 3, 2026 (after market close) · Call 5:00 p.m. ET Fiscal period: 2026 Q2 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

The setup in one line

This is the quarter TKO's two big media-rights resets — UFC on Paramount and WWE on ESPN/Netflix — collide with its two biggest live tentpoles (WrestleMania 42 and a Saudi WWE PLE) plus the start of On Location's FIFA World Cup 26 program. Management has explicitly flagged Q2 as, in absolute dollars, by far the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year for WWE. The stock, however, goes in on its back foot — near 52-week-area lows and down high-single-digits YTD — so the bar on reported results is lower than the operating momentum suggests. The real catalyst is whether management raises full-year guidance (as it did at Q2 last year) versus merely reaffirming.

What the Street expects

Revenue: ~$1.53B consensus, roughly +17% YoY vs. $1.308B in Q2'25.
EPS: consensus clustered around $1.32–$1.72 (Barchart ~$1.72 vs. $1.17 a year ago, +47%; GuruFocus ~$1.32) — a wide spread that reflects noise around minority-interest/tax and the White House event drag.
Full year 2026: company guide (reaffirmed at Q1) of $5.675–5.775B revenue and $2.240–2.290B adjusted EBITDA — implying ~21% revenue growth, ~43% EBITDA growth, and ~600 bps of margin expansion to ~39.6% at the midpoint.
EPS track record: beat last quarter (Q1'26 $1.12 vs. ~$0.91), but a mixed multi-quarter record on the bottom line, so headline EPS is not the cleanest read-through here.

H1 math to keep in mind: Q1'26 already delivered $1.597B revenue / $549.8M EBITDA. Add a consensus ~$1.53B Q2 and H1 lands near $3.13B revenue — leaving the World Cup-heavy back half to carry the rest of the ~$5.73B midpoint. Because so much is contracted (media rights, FIPs, partnerships with escalators), the FY guide is highly visible; the debate is upside vs. midpoint.

Stock setup / positioning

TKO started 2026 near $207, peaked around $216 right after the June 14 White House event, and has since drifted to the low $180s (~$182 at the July 31 close) — roughly -9% YTD and down ~8% over the trailing month.
Sentiment is skeptical despite bullish sell-side price-target narratives (some fair-value framings in the $230s), suggesting a valuation "show-me" moment.
Insider optics are a soft negative: director/vice chair Nick Khan has been a repeated planned seller (multiple Rule 144 filings and open-market sales in June–July under a pre-set plan). Programmatic, but worth acknowledging into the print.

Segment-by-segment: what to watch

UFC — Paramount step-up vs. the White House drag

Media rights should show the biggest year-on-year jump of any UFC line as the Paramount deal (started Jan 2026) annualizes — Q1 already lifted UFC media rights +23% YoY.
The offset: UFC Freedom 250 at the White House (June 14) carried a pre-announced ~$30M loss (expanded card + two-day "festivalization" on the Ellipse). Watch how cleanly management bridges this so investors don't misread the EBITDA line — it's an intentional marketing investment, and it worked: TKO said ~34 million global viewers watched, the biggest U.S. UFC event ever.
Event mix: 11 events (2 numbered + 8 Fight Nights + the White House) vs. 11 last year that had 4 numbered — mix is less numbered-heavy, a modest revenue headwind, partly offset by the Baku Fight Night FIP (a multi-year renewal at a higher per-event fee).
Comp: Q2'25 UFC = $415.9M rev / $244.8M EBITDA (59% margin). Expect strong media/partnership growth; the White House loss likely tempers margin — management's promise is that full-year UFC margins "meaningfully outpace 2025."
Watch: any color on the Paramount + Warner Bros. Discovery combination as a distribution/marketing tailwind for both UFC and Zuffa Boxing.

WWE — the quarter's engine

Q2 should be WWE's biggest quarter of the year: WrestleMania 42 (April, Las Vegas — 106,000+ fans over two nights, a record 32 partners, FIP economics "meaningfully ahead" of last year), the Saudi Night of Champions PLE (FIP), plus the ESPN PLE + Netflix archive rights step-ups.
Comp is tough but clean: Q2'25 WWE = $556.2M rev / $329.8M EBITDA (59% margin), which itself included WrestleMania 41 and a Saudi PLE — so growth must come from the ESPN/Netflix step-up and FIP/partnership escalators, not calendar shifts.
Watch the margin: WWE printed 54% in Q1 (up 4 pts) despite international-tour and NXT-development cost drags; management guided full-year WWE margin to "meaningfully increase." Q2 is where the high-flow-through rights dollars should show.

IMG / On Location — World Cup begins, LA28 costs bite

FIFA World Cup 26 On Location hospitality began June 11; management said sales are running >2x any prior World Cup program. But much of the revenue recognition lands in Q3 (tournament June–July), so Q2 is a ramp, not the peak.
Other Q2 drivers: Final Four, NFL Draft, Wimbledon start, MLS, European league finales.
Offset: ongoing LA28 pre-spend on sales/staffing weighs on IMG EBITDA. Q1's IMG was flattered by the Milano-Cortina Olympics ($655M segment revenue) — don't expect Q2 IMG to match that Q1 level.
Comp: Q2'25 IMG = $306.6M rev / $29.0M EBITDA (9% margin).

Corporate & Other (PBR + Zuffa Boxing)

Zuffa Boxing is the emerging story: tracking ahead of internal plan — 100+ fighters signed, a Sky Sports UK/Ireland deal, distribution in 15+ additional territories, and events moving "on the road." Watch for any framing of its path to profitability/contribution.
PBR approved a two-team expansion (10→12 for 2027) with franchise values management says will be "multiples" of the ~$22M 2024 round — a soft valuation-marker for the segment.
No more Endeavor corporate-cost allocations (post Feb 2025), which continues to flatter YoY corporate comparisons.

Guidance & capital return — the likely catalysts

Guidance is the swing factor. A raise would echo the Q2'25 playbook and could re-rate a beaten-down stock; a reaffirm could disappoint given how much good news (Paramount, White House, WrestleMania, World Cup sales) is already known. Listen for whether they narrow to the top half.
Buybacks: the $800M ASR completed on/around June 30; a $200M 10b5-1 plan follows; and the Board added a fresh $1B authorization on top of the prior $2B — with management calling the stock dislocated vs. intrinsic value. Expect continued aggressive repurchase messaging into current weakness.
Balance sheet: net leverage ~2.3x at Q1 (management comfortable up to ~3x, and expects to naturally delever below 2x); ~$0.78/quarter dividend.
Free cash flow: noisy this year — a Paramount working-capital drag and World Cup escrow timing distort the optics. Management's normalized FCF-conversion target is >60%; watch the reconciliation rather than the headline.

Key debates / risk factors

WWE creative & "over-monetization" backlash — vocal fan criticism on sponsorship load, ticket pricing, and storyline quality. Management insists demand is "resilient" (record attendance/viewership) and that WrestleMania's YoY ticket dip was just a hard Vegas year-2 comp. Any softening in domestic gate/engagement metrics would embolden bears.
UFC card-quality narrative — persistent chatter about "weaker cards." Management pushes back hard, citing a next-gen of stars. Watch pay-per-event and viewership trends on Paramount+/CBS.
Middle East / Saudi exposure — 8 regional events across UFC/WWE/Zuffa in 2026 (most in Q4); management reaffirmed Saudi partners' commitment (explicitly contrasting the LIV Golf/PIF pullback) and no consumer pullback. Geopolitics remains a tail risk to high-margin FIPs.
FIP pipeline durability — new markets (Philadelphia UFC 330 in Aug, Belgrade debut, Abu Dhabi) test whether financial-incentive packages keep scaling. This is a core growth pillar.
Insider selling / minority-interest complexity — Khan's planned sales and TKO's dual-class/OpCo structure (large NCI) muddy per-share optics.

Bottom line — how to score the print

Signal	Bullish read	Bearish read
Guidance	Raise or narrow to top half	Simple reaffirm
UFC EBITDA	Grows despite ~$30M White House drag → Paramount flow-through evident	Margin compresses; White House costs overshoot
WWE	Record Q2, margin expands on ESPN/Netflix step-up	In-line vs. tough WrestleMania+Saudi comp
FIP/partnerships	Pipeline commentary accelerates; new categories	"Timing" excuses on partnership growth again
Capital return	Aggressive use of new $1B authorization at low prices	Passive, cash conserved
World Cup	Reaffirms >2x prior program, Q3 setup strong	Any hint of hospitality demand softness

Net: operating momentum (media-rights step-ups, WrestleMania, World Cup sales, White House halo) looks strong and largely contracted, but the stock's weakness signals the market wants a guidance raise and clean margin proof, not just a beat on a lowered-EPS bar. The most important 30 minutes will be the call's tone on full-year guidance, WWE margin trajectory, and FIP/Middle East demand.

Sources: TKO Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and release; Q2 2025 earnings release; TKO daily news/SEC filings; and consensus/estimate data from public reporting (Barchart, GuruFocus, Zacks). Consensus figures vary by provider.