| TKO |
Report |
Q2 2026 Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.53B |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Report |
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$680M vs. cons ~$615M |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Report |
Q2 2026 Diluted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.72 |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue Guidance (reaffirm range) |
LOWER |
guide ~$5.725B vs. cons $5.794B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance (reaffirm range) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.265B vs. cons ~$2.24B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Guide |
Normalized FCF Conversion Target |
BETTER |
guide ~60% vs. cons ~55% implied (FY2026) |
LOW |
| TKO |
Guide |
Capital Return Pace (buyback authorization utilization) |
BETTER |
guide ~$300M incremental Q3 buyback pace vs. cons/Street model ~$150M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| TKO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TKO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.5% (FADE) |
Revenue/EBITDA likely beat on WrestleMania 42 profitability, UFC Paramount step-ups and World Cup hospitality tailwind, but EPS likely misses again (3rd of last 4 quarters) on Freedom 250's ~$30M loss, higher interest/D&A from buyback-funded debt, and litigation costs. Critically, reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance ($5.675-5.775B) sits at/below the Street's already-elevated full-year consensus ($5.794B) despite Q2 being management's self-described seasonal peak quarter - implying a softer implied H2 bridge. That out-period math, combined with the 90-day trend of FY26/27 EPS estimates already being slashed (~$5.32->$4.09), the WWE 'fan fatigue'/SummerSlam ticket-pricing narrative, ongoing UFC/WWE litigation overhang, and a still-rich ~79x P/E versus ~37x peer average, gives sell-side more reason to trim forward numbers even after a decent headline beat, extending the initial negative reaction over the week rather than stabilizing or reversing. |
MEDIUM |