{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.53B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$680M vs. cons ~$615M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.72",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue Guidance (reaffirm range)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.725B vs. cons $5.794B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance (reaffirm range)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.265B vs. cons ~$2.24B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Normalized FCF Conversion Target",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~60% vs. cons ~55% implied (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital Return Pace (buyback authorization utilization)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$300M incremental Q3 buyback pace vs. cons/Street model ~$150M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Revenue/EBITDA likely beat on WrestleMania 42 profitability, UFC Paramount step-ups and World Cup hospitality tailwind, but EPS likely misses again (3rd of last 4 quarters) on Freedom 250's ~$30M loss, higher interest/D&A from buyback-funded debt, and litigation costs. Critically, reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance ($5.675-5.775B) sits at/below the Street's already-elevated full-year consensus ($5.794B) despite Q2 being management's self-described seasonal peak quarter - implying a softer implied H2 bridge. That out-period math, combined with the 90-day trend of FY26/27 EPS estimates already being slashed (~$5.32->$4.09), the WWE 'fan fatigue'/SummerSlam ticket-pricing narrative, ongoing UFC/WWE litigation overhang, and a still-rich ~79x P/E versus ~37x peer average, gives sell-side more reason to trim forward numbers even after a decent headline beat, extending the initial negative reaction over the week rather than stabilizing or reversing.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}