Report Date: Monday, August 3, 2026 (after market close) | Ticker: NYSE: TKO
TKO heads into tomorrow's print with the stock well off its 2026 highs. Shares have pulled back from a late-June peak near $216 to roughly $182 currently, and one tracker noted the stock price fell by -1.09% on the last trading day before the print, closing at $181.81, with a 52-week high of $226.92 and low of $152.29. A recent note on the sell-off attributed it less to operating news and more to sentiment: the move appears tied more to risk reassessment than to a new operating setback, with investors weighing TKO's ongoing UFC and WWE litigation exposure while the stock lacks a fresh positive catalyst after recent earnings, buyback, and dividend announcements. Notably, that same analysis pointed out the disconnect with fundamentals: TKO's latest quarterly report showed strong first-quarter 2026 growth, with revenue rising to $1.597 billion and adjusted EBITDA increasing to $549.8 million, so the decline does not appear to be driven by weak reported results.
Wall Street remains broadly bullish despite the pullback. Sell-side sentiment is skewed positive, with an overall "Strong Buy" rating among 24 analysts covering the stock, 17 recommending "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," and six suggesting "Hold," and a mean price target of $229.90, implying about 24% upside. That said, valuation bears flag the multiple — one recent piece noted TKO currently trades on a P/E of 78.75x, versus an Entertainment industry average of about 37.53x.
TKO's first quarter set a high bar. Revenue grew 26% to $1.597 billion and Adjusted EBITDA rose 32% to $549.8 million, with margin expanding roughly 150bps to 34%. All three growth drivers — media rights, live events/financial incentive packages (FIPs), and global partnerships — delivered in line with plan, and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $5.675–5.775 billion in revenue and $2.24–2.29 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, implying ~21% revenue growth and ~43% EBITDA growth with ~600bps of margin expansion. The board also authorized an incremental $1 billion of share repurchases on top of the existing $2 billion program.
CFO Andrew Schleimer specifically framed the second quarter as the seasonal high point: WWE was expected to post "by far the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year" given WrestleMania 42 (which fell in Q2) and a Saudi-based premium live event, while UFC would see continued step-ups from the new Paramount deal and stage UFC Freedom 250 at the White House — a marquee promotional event but one management explicitly guided would lose ~$30 million given expenses far exceeding limited sellable partner inventory.
Estimates vary somewhat by data provider, underscoring some uncertainty into the print: - Analysts expect TKO to report a profit of $1.72 per share, up 47% from $1.17 per share in the year-ago quarter, with full-year 2026 EPS expected at $4.94, representing a 115.7% increase from $2.29 in fiscal 2025. - A separate estimate service pegs the quarter lower: the consensus estimate for Q2 2026 revenue is $1,534.36 million, and earnings are expected to come in at $1.32 per share, while full-year 2026 revenue is seen near $5,794 million. - Notably, that same source flagged a wide swing in full-year EPS estimates: earnings estimates for TKO Group Holdings for the full year 2026 have declined from $5.32 per share to $4.09 per share... over the past 90 days, even as revenue estimates ticked slightly higher — a sign the Street has been dialing back bottom-line expectations even while topline confidence holds. - Track record context: in Q1, TKO's actual revenue of $1,596.90 million beat analysts' expectations by 0.30%, but actual EPS of $1.12 missed expectations of $1.19 by -6.20%, and the company has missed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in three of the last four quarters, while surpassing on another occasion — a pattern worth remembering given adjusted EBITDA (not GAAP EPS) is management's primary internal benchmark.
TKO entered Q2 with considerable capital-return momentum: an $800 million ASR launched in March, a follow-on $200 million 10b5-1 plan, and a fresh $1 billion authorization from the May Q1 call (on top of the pre-existing $2 billion program). That ASR appears to have run its course during the quarter: on June 30, TKO Group completed its $800 million accelerated share repurchase program, buying back approximately 4.17 million Class A shares, with the company noting the move reflects confidence in its business outlook and reinforces its disciplined capital allocation strategy alongside its quarterly dividend and ongoing $200 million 10b5-1 share repurchase plan, which is set to run through August 31, 2026. Investors should watch for confirmation of buyback pace, updated leverage (2.3x net debt/EBITDA exiting Q1, with management comfortable operating even higher given the natural deleveraging trajectory), and any additional draw on the new $1 billion authorization.
TKO's underlying growth algorithm — contracted, escalator-driven media rights (Paramount, ESPN, Netflix, CW), a rich live-events/FIP pipeline, and an increasingly diversified portfolio (Zuffa Boxing, PBR, IMG/On Location) — remains intact based on Q1's trajectory and management's repeated reaffirmation of aggressive FY26 targets. The stock's ~15%+ pullback since late June appears driven more by sentiment (litigation overhang, valuation, WWE creative/ticket-price criticism, macro/Middle East jitters) than by a change in fundamentals. Tomorrow's print is less about whether the growth story is real — analysts still broadly rate the stock a buy with meaningful upside to price targets — and more about whether management can reaffirm guidance cleanly despite a costly White House spectacle, keep capital-return momentum visible, and successfully address the renewed "fan fatigue" narrative that has resurfaced just as the quarter closes.