TKO Group Holdings: Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Timing note: TKO is scheduled to report today, Monday, August 3, 2026, after the market closes, not tomorrow. The earnings call begins at 5:00 p.m. ET. (investor.tkogrp.com)

Investment view going into the print

This quarter should showcase the earnings power of TKO’s new media-rights portfolio, particularly at WWE. However, the headline numbers will contain several moving pieces: a deliberately loss-making UFC event at the White House, FIFA World Cup activity at On Location, continued LA28 spending, and substantial financial-incentive-package revenue.

The most important question is therefore not simply whether TKO beats quarterly revenue or EPS estimates. It is whether management can:

1. Reaffirm or raise its ambitious 2026 outlook;
2. Demonstrate meaningful UFC and WWE margin expansion;
3. Provide confidence that FIFA World Cup cash flows and profits are tracking to plan; and
4. Continue aggressive capital returns without allowing leverage to become a concern.

The Street appears to expect approximately $1.54-$1.55 billion of revenue and roughly $1.45-$1.53 of EPS, although estimates vary by provider and EPS can be noisy because of TKO’s ownership structure and noncontrolling interests. That revenue estimate implies growth of about 18% from Q2 2025. (benzinga.com)

The setup

Metric	Q2 2025 actual	Q1 2026 actual	2026 outlook
Revenue	$1.308B	$1.597B	$5.675B-$5.775B
Adjusted EBITDA	$526.5M	$549.8M	$2.240B-$2.290B
Adjusted EBITDA margin	40%	34%	Approximately 39.6% at midpoint
Free cash flow	$374.9M	$674.5M	More than 60% normalized conversion target

TKO entered Q2 with good operating momentum. First-quarter revenue rose 26% and adjusted EBITDA increased 32%, while the company reaffirmed full-year guidance and authorized another $1 billion of share repurchases. Q1 free cash flow was boosted materially by FIFA World Cup collections, making the underlying working-capital bridge especially important this quarter. (s202.q4cdn.com)

At the July 31 close of $181.84, TKO shares were approximately 12% below their January 2 level and roughly 19% below their late-February high. That pullback reduces the near-term valuation risk, but it also suggests investors are looking for more concrete evidence that the large 2026 EBITDA step-up is being delivered.

What matters most

1. WWE should be the quarter’s principal earnings engine

Management explicitly said WWE’s second quarter should be its highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of 2026, driven by WrestleMania, the Saudi Arabian premium live event, and the step-up from the ESPN rights agreement. (webflow.rev.com)

Key items to watch:

• Media rights: The ESPN agreement should produce a visible year-over-year increase.
• WrestleMania economics: Management previously disclosed attendance of more than 106,000 over two nights and a record 32 partners. Investors should look for strong sponsorship, ticketing and financial-incentive-package economics.
• Margins: Q2 2025 WWE adjusted EBITDA was $329.8 million on $556.2 million of revenue, a 59% margin. The new rights fees should provide attractive incremental flow-through, although production, talent and international-event costs will partially offset it. (investor.tkogrp.com)
• Fan monetization: Commentary on ticket pricing, commercial integrations and creative quality will matter. Management defended current trends last quarter, but investors will want confirmation that monetization has not begun to damage attendance, engagement or merchandise demand.

What would be encouraging: WWE revenue comfortably above last year, adjusted EBITDA growing faster than revenue, and management describing ESPN and Netflix engagement as exceeding internal expectations.

What would be concerning: Strong revenue but limited EBITDA growth because of higher production, talent, travel or marketing costs.

2. UFC’s underlying rights economics versus the White House expense

UFC should benefit from the first full year of its new Paramount relationship. In Q1, UFC media-rights revenue rose 23%, even with two fewer Fight Nights, illustrating the value of the contractual step-up. (s202.q4cdn.com)

Q2 is more complicated:

• TKO expected 11 UFC events, compared with 11 in the prior-year quarter, but with fewer numbered events and more Fight Nights.
• The Baku event carried a meaningful financial-incentive package at a higher per-event fee than the comparable 2025 arrangement.
• UFC Freedom 250 at the White House was expected to produce an approximately $30 million loss because of its unusual production and event costs. Management framed that expense as a brand-building investment rather than a recurring run-rate cost. (alphaspread.com)

Investors should separate the White House loss from the underlying UFC margin trajectory. Management has said UFC’s full-year margin should meaningfully exceed 2025, so a clear reconciliation of event costs will be important.

Other questions include:

• Is Paramount/CBS distribution expanding the UFC audience as quickly as expected?
• Is that reach translating into sponsorship, ticketing and merchandise revenue?
• Are fighter compensation and production costs rising faster than planned?
• Does management still view the quality and depth of upcoming UFC cards as sufficient to sustain engagement?

Best signal: Strong media-rights growth and an underlying segment margin that would have expanded materially excluding Freedom 250.

3. IMG and On Location may determine the quality of the consolidated beat

IMG and On Location make the quarterly comparison less straightforward.

Q1 included substantial revenue from the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, which explains why consensus Q2 revenue can be slightly below Q1 even though WWE is expected to have its strongest quarter of the year. In Q2, the focus shifts toward:

• FIFA World Cup hospitality;
• The Final Four and NFL Draft;
• IMG production and distribution activity;
• Soccer, Wimbledon and MLS-related business; and
• Continued spending to build the LA28 hospitality program.

Management expected the World Cup to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA, but warned that LA28 sales expenses would offset part of that benefit. (webflow.rev.com)

Investors should pay particular attention to:

• World Cup hospitality sales relative to plan;
• Gross margin and cancellation or refund exposure;
• The timing of World Cup revenue recognition;
• Restricted cash and customer-prepayment balances;
• The amount of LA28 pre-spending; and
• IMG’s organic performance excluding major-event timing.

Q1 free cash flow included approximately $582 million of net FIFA World Cup collections, so reported cash flow should not be annualized without adjusting for these payments. (s202.q4cdn.com)

4. Full-year guidance is the real earnings test

TKO’s current 2026 guidance calls for:

• Revenue: $5.675-$5.775 billion;
• Adjusted EBITDA: $2.240-$2.290 billion;
• Approximately 21% revenue growth;
• Approximately 43% adjusted EBITDA growth; and
• Roughly 600 basis points of margin expansion to 39.6% at the midpoint. (s202.q4cdn.com)

After Q1, the company still needed approximately $4.13 billion of revenue and $1.72 billion of adjusted EBITDA over the remaining three quarters to reach the midpoint. Because Q2 is WWE’s strongest quarter, investors will want a convincing explanation of how UFC rights fees, World Cup activity, financial-incentive packages and cost efficiencies support the second-half EBITDA bridge.

Guidance reaction framework

• Raise: Clearly positive, particularly if driven by recurring media-rights and partnership economics rather than favorable event timing.
• Reaffirm with stronger second-half detail: Probably sufficient if Q2 results are solid and management identifies clear, contracted drivers.
• Reaffirm without detail: Could be received cautiously given the magnitude of the required 2026 EBITDA growth.
• Cut: Would challenge the central investment thesis of high-margin rights-fee growth and operating leverage.

5. Capital returns and leverage

TKO returned approximately $1 billion to equity holders in Q1 and added $1 billion to its repurchase authorization. The company had initiated an $800 million accelerated share repurchase and planned a subsequent repurchase program of up to $200 million. (s202.q4cdn.com)

The trade-off is higher debt. TKO ended Q1 with:

• Gross debt: $4.671 billion;
• Cash: $789 million;
• Restricted cash: $937 million; and
• Net leverage: approximately 2.3 times.

Management has indicated it is comfortable operating with more leverage because expected EBITDA growth should produce natural deleveraging. Investors should nevertheless look for:

• Final share count from the accelerated repurchase;
• Incremental Q2 purchases;
• The next quarterly dividend;
• Updated net leverage;
• World Cup cash requirements; and
• Whether management intends to fund additional buybacks with cash generation or more debt.

Buybacks at the current share price could be accretive, but that depends on management delivering the forecast EBITDA and free cash flow.

What a good report looks like

A constructive result would likely include:

• Revenue near or above $1.55 billion;
• Adjusted EBITDA growth materially faster than revenue;
• A strong WWE quarter with visible ESPN-related margin flow-through;
• UFC results that demonstrate margin expansion after adjusting for the White House event;
• World Cup hospitality sales and profitability on or ahead of plan;
• Full-year guidance maintained with an upward bias—or raised;
• Continued normalized free-cash-flow conversion above 60%; and
• Additional buybacks without a material increase in leverage.

What could disappoint

The principal risks are:

1. White House costs above the anticipated loss, with no offset elsewhere in UFC;
2. Lower-than-expected WWE sponsorship or live-event monetization;
3. World Cup revenue that is large but low-margin;
4. Higher LA28, boxing, production or talent investment;
5. Event-related financial-incentive packages slipping into later quarters;
6. Guidance maintained only because of increasingly aggressive second-half assumptions;
7. Weak underlying free cash flow after adjusting for World Cup collections; or
8. Higher leverage without a proportional reduction in share count.

Questions management should answer

1. What were UFC’s Q2 revenue and EBITDA margins excluding Freedom 250?
2. How is Paramount/CBS audience growth translating into sponsorship and other revenue?
3. How much incremental WWE revenue and EBITDA came from the ESPN agreement?
4. Were WrestleMania sponsorship, ticketing and incentive-package economics ahead of 2025?
5. What percentage of expected World Cup hospitality revenue and gross profit has now been secured?
6. How much World Cup cash remains restricted, and when will it convert into unrestricted cash?
7. How much LA28 and Zuffa Boxing investment is included in the remaining 2026 outlook?
8. What are the key assumptions behind second-half adjusted EBITDA?
9. How many shares were ultimately retired under the accelerated repurchase?
10. Does management expect to finish 2026 below two times net leverage?

Bottom line

TKO’s Q2 report should be strong in absolute terms, with WWE likely setting a quarterly earnings record and UFC benefiting from its new Paramount rights agreement. But the quarter also includes enough unusual items that a simple revenue or EPS beat will not necessarily settle the debate.

The most important indicators are segment-level EBITDA margins, the normalized economics of UFC, World Cup profitability and cash conversion, and the credibility of the full-year outlook. A guidance raise would be the cleanest positive catalyst. A reaffirmation can still work, but management will need to provide a convincing bridge to the substantial EBITDA growth embedded in the second half of 2026.