TKO Group Holdings (TKO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive but not a slam dunk — consensus is a manageable bar, the biggest swing factor is whether the FIFA World Cup On Location contribution and the Saudi WWE PLE FIP land as guided, and any upside to Adjusted EBITDA margin (guided ~39.6% for the full year) would be the most meaningful positive catalyst.

Heading into Q2 2026, TKO faces a quarter management explicitly flagged as its highest revenue and Adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year in absolute dollars — driven by WrestleMania 42 (Las Vegas, April), a Saudi Arabia WWE Premium Live Event with a meaningful Financial Incentive Package (FIP), the FIFA World Cup hospitality program at On Location (commencing June 11), and 11 UFC events including UFC Freedom 250 at the White House (June 14). Consensus Adjusted EBITDA of ~$636M implies roughly 21% YoY growth, a bar that looks achievable given the event calendar, though the ~$30M expected net loss on UFC Freedom 250 and ongoing LA28 pre-spend at IMG are known headwinds. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the May 6 print (Q2 EBITDA consensus slipped from ~$669M to ~$636M), suggesting the Street has already de-risked the White House event cost and is not pricing in a meaningful beat. The stock is down ~5% since last earnings versus the S&P 500 up ~2%, with multiple compression (EV/EBITDA contracted ~3% over 3 months) doing most of the damage — the stock is not pricing in a beat, which creates asymmetric upside if the World Cup and FIP economics surprise positively. The key wildcard is the Paramount/WBD merger delay — management was enthusiastic about the combined entity as a UFC and Zuffa Boxing distribution partner, and any clarity (or further uncertainty) on deal timing could move sentiment on TKO's long-term media rights optionality.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar — Q2 revenue of ~$1.53B implies 17% YoY growth and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$636M implies ~21% YoY growth, both consistent with full-year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA is the bigger swing factor: the mix of FIP timing, World Cup contribution, and the ~$30M White House event loss will determine whether the margin lands at, above, or below the implied ~41.6% for the quarter.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q1 2026 actuals from TKO Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 6, 2026). Q2 2026 consensus as of August 2, 2026. Note: Q2 2026 FCF consensus of $277.7M reflects normalization after Q1’s $582M FIFA World Cup pre-payment tailwind. Diluted EPS YoY decline reflects higher D&A and interest expense from the March 2026 $900M term loan add-on, not operational deterioration.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters — Top 2 KPIs: Net Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: TKO has beaten on revenue in every quarter since the IMG consolidation; EBITDA beats have been consistent in the last four quarters (Q1 2025–Q1 2026) after early integration-cost misses in Q2–Q4 2024 — the trend strongly favors a beat, but the bar is now higher and the Street has tightened its estimates.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the May 6 earnings call — management reaffirmed full-year revenue of $5.675–$5.775B and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.240–$2.290B. The only post-earnings development was a new 10b5-1 share repurchase plan initiated May 11, reflecting management’s conviction in the stock at current levels.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA estimates have drifted ~5% lower since the May 6 print (from ~$669M to ~$636M), largely reflecting the Street de-risking the ~$30M White House event loss and ongoing LA28 pre-spend. Revenue estimates are essentially flat. The downward EBITDA revision creates a lower bar and potential for a beat if FIP economics and World Cup contribution surprise positively.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. The ~5% Q2 EBITDA estimate cut since the May 6 print is the most notable revision — the Street has absorbed the White House event cost and LA28 pre-spend, setting a cleaner bar. FY estimates are essentially unchanged, implying the Street expects H2 to make up any Q2 shortfall. TKO does not provide quarterly guidance; all quarterly estimates are Street-derived.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: TKO has underperformed both the S&P 500 and the BETZ ETF since the May 6 earnings print, with the stock down ~4.5% vs. S&P 500 up ~1.8% — driven almost entirely by multiple compression (EV/EBITDA contracted ~3% over 3 months) rather than estimate cuts, suggesting sentiment-driven selling rather than fundamental deterioration.

TKO vs. BETZ ETF vs. S&P 500 — Since May 6, 2026 (Last Earnings Date)

Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data. BETZ (Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF) used as sector proxy given TKO’s sports entertainment positioning. Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 close ($190.47).

Key Events Since Last Earnings:

• May 12–13, 2026: CEO Ariel Emanuel, CFO Andrew Schleimer, and President Mark Shapiro each purchased shares in the open market on May 13 (post-earnings); Director Jonathan Kraft purchased May 14. Stock rallied ~5% in the week following the print.
• May 28–Jun 11, 2026: Stock rallied from ~$200 to ~$208 as World Cup hospitality momentum built and Zuffa Boxing continued to gain traction.
• Jun 14, 2026: UFC Freedom 250 at the White House. Stock pulled back modestly from the ~$213 peak on Jun 11 as the event’s net loss profile was well-telegraphed.
• Jun 26, 2026: Stock hit a post-earnings high of $215.88, likely driven by strong World Cup On Location demand and positive FIP pipeline news.
• Jul 13–Jul 23, 2026: Stock sold off from ~$185 to ~$179 as NFLX reported mixed Q2 results (stock -8%) and broader entertainment sector sentiment weakened; WBD/Paramount merger delay added uncertainty.
• Jul 30–31, 2026: LYV reported strong Q2 results (AOI $817M vs. $785M est.); TKO partially recovered to $181.84.

Performance Summary (May 6 – Jul 31, 2026): TKO: -4.5% | BETZ ETF: -0.7% | S&P 500 (SPY): +1.8%. TKO underperformed on multiple compression (EV/EBITDA -3.3% over 3 months) despite stable-to-rising estimates, suggesting the underperformance is sentiment/macro-driven and not fundamental — a setup that historically resolves on a clean earnings beat.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since last earnings is the Paramount/WBD merger delay — management was enthusiastic about the combined entity as a UFC and Zuffa Boxing distribution partner, and the deal being pushed to at least June 2027 creates near-term uncertainty on TKO’s long-term media rights optionality, though it does not affect current contracted revenue.

• Aug 3, 2026 — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Today): TKO reports Q2 2026 results after market close. Key focus areas: World Cup On Location contribution, Saudi WWE PLE FIP, UFC Freedom 250 net loss, and any update on FY guidance.
• Jul 31, 2026 — LYV Q2 2026 Beat: Live Nation reported Q2 adjusted operating income of $817M vs. $785M consensus and revenue of $7.66B vs. $7.53B. Management cited robust underlying demand trends. Implication: Positive read-through for TKO’s live event economics and sponsorship pipeline.
• Jul 24–27, 2026 — Paramount/WBD Merger Delayed to June 2027: A federal judge temporarily halted the $110B Paramount/WBD merger following a lawsuit by 12 state AGs; the deal was subsequently paused until at least June 1, 2027. Wall Street pricing ~50/50 odds of completion. Implication: TKO management was enthusiastic about the combined entity as a UFC and Zuffa Boxing distribution partner (Paramount+, HBO Max, CBS, TNT, Bleacher Report). Delay creates uncertainty on this optionality but does not affect TKO’s existing Paramount UFC deal, which is already live and generating revenue.
• Jul 16, 2026 — NFLX Q2 2026 Mixed Results: Netflix reported Q2 revenue of $12.6B (+13% YoY) in-line with guidance but stock fell ~8% on slowing growth outlook. Implication: Netflix highlighted WWE as a key live event driver for subscriber acquisition; strong advertiser interest in live sports content validates TKO’s media rights pricing power.
• Jul 8, 2026 — TKO Announces Q2 2026 Results Date: TKO confirmed August 3, 2026 earnings date via press release.
• Jun 12, 2026 — Annual Shareholder Meeting: TKO shareholders elected all directors and ratified auditor at the annual meeting. No material governance changes.
• Jun 14, 2026 — UFC Freedom 250 at the White House: Inaugural event at the Ellipse with Ram Trucks and Crypto.com as co-presenting partners; ~4,000 attendees including ~1,100 military guests; Zac Brown Band performed. Management guided ~$30M net loss on the event. Implication: Brand investment with significant earned media value; financial impact already embedded in Q2 consensus.
• Jun 11, 2026 — FIFA World Cup 2026 Begins: On Location’s FIFA World Cup hospitality program commenced. TKO held ~$937M in restricted cash (FIFA pre-payments) as of Q1 end. Implication: Major Q2 revenue and EBITDA contributor for the IMG segment; LA28 pre-spend partially offsets.
• May 12–14, 2026 — Cluster of Insider Purchases: CEO Emanuel (10,805 shares), President Shapiro (10,807 shares), CFO Schleimer (2,696 shares), and Director Kraft (5,200 shares) all purchased shares in the open market at ~$183–$192. Implication: Unusually broad cluster of discretionary buys from the top of the house immediately post-earnings — a strong bullish signal.
• May 11–12, 2026 — New 10b5-1 Repurchase Plan: TKO filed an 8-K updating its share repurchase plan; new 10b5-1 plan (up to $200M) supersedes prior plan and commenced May 14. ASR ($800M) expected to complete in Q2. Implication: Aggressive capital return continues; management signaled stock is undervalued.
• May 6, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat + $1B Incremental Buyback: Revenue $1.597B (+26% YoY), Adj. EBITDA $550M (+32% YoY), FY guidance reaffirmed. Board authorized additional $1B buyback on top of existing $2B program. Implication: Strong execution baseline heading into Q2.

7. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The most notable signal is the broad cluster of discretionary open-market buys from the CEO, President, CFO, and a Director on May 13–14 — immediately post-Q1 earnings at ~$183–$192 — a rare and bullish alignment across the top of the house. Director Nick Khan’s ongoing 10b5-1 planned sales are routine and obligation-driven.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings / Insider Transaction Data. The May 13–14 cluster of discretionary buys from the CEO, President, CFO, and a Director — totaling ~$5.4M across four individuals on the same two days — is an unusually strong insider signal. Nick Khan’s regular monthly 10b5-1 sales (established March 13, 2026) are pre-planned and obligation-driven; they do not reflect a negative view on the stock.

8. Peer Commentary Read-Through (Last 60 Days — Q2 2026 Only)

Key Takeaway: Both LYV and NFLX reported Q2 2026 results in the last 60 days with commentary directly relevant to TKO’s current reporting quarter. The read-through is broadly constructive: live event demand is at record levels (LYV), premium sports content is a top driver of subscriber acquisition and ad revenue (NFLX), and sponsorship/advertising markets remain robust. The only cautionary note is NFLX’s stock reaction (-8%) on slowing growth, which weighed on entertainment sector sentiment broadly.

Scope Note: Only commentary explicitly about Q2 2026 (the current TKO reporting quarter) is included below. Prior-quarter results commentary and historical comparisons from these peers are excluded.

Live Nation (LYV) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 30, 2026)

LYV Q2 2026 Results: Revenue $7.66B (+9% YoY) vs. $7.53B consensus; Adjusted Operating Income $817M (+2% YoY) vs. $785M consensus. Beat on both lines.

Netflix (NFLX) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 16, 2026)

NFLX Q2 2026 Results: Revenue $12.6B (+13% YoY), in-line with guidance; Operating Margin 33.4%, slightly ahead of forecast. Stock fell ~8% on slowing growth outlook (Q3 guidance implied deceleration). Diluted EPS $0.80 vs. $0.72 prior year.

Overall Peer Read-Through Assessment: The LYV and NFLX Q2 2026 results collectively paint a picture of robust live event demand, strong advertiser interest in premium sports content, and growing platform competition for sports rights — all of which are structural tailwinds for TKO. The only near-term headwind is the NFLX-driven entertainment sector sentiment weakness in mid-July, which appears to have already been absorbed by the market. On balance, the peer read-through is net positive for TKO’s Q2 2026 print.