| TROW |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.56 vs. cons $2.52 |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Report |
Net revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.94B vs. cons $1.92B |
LOW |
| TROW |
Report |
Effective fee rate ex-perf (bps) |
MISS |
pred ~38.1 bps vs. cons/implied ~38.4 bps |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted opex growth (ex-carried interest) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+3% to +6% vs. cons ~+4.5% (FY2026 vs $4.6B base) |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Guide |
Net flow trajectory / durability of stabilization |
BETTER |
guide Q2 net outflow ~-$6.5B (known) vs. cons ~-$12B (Q2/2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Guide |
Fee-rate/mix-shift trajectory commentary |
LOWER |
guide exit rate ~38.0 bps vs. cons ~38.5 bps (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TROW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
AUM ($1.89T) and flows (-$6.5B) are pre-announced, so the good news is largely banked and the stock has already re-rated +38% off March lows to ~$119, above the ~$97-107 sell-side target band. Even a modest EPS/revenue beat is offset by continued effective-fee-rate compression (mix shift to lower-fee TDF/ETF/SMA) and weak 1-yr performance; out-period math (higher opex accruals on the rally, softer forward fee capture) implies estimates get trimmed rather than raised. Priced-for-perfection setup skews to sell-the-news and a post-print fade. |
LOW |