{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.56 vs. cons $2.52",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.94B vs. cons $1.92B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective fee rate ex-perf (bps)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~38.1 bps vs. cons/implied ~38.4 bps",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted opex growth (ex-carried interest)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+3% to +6% vs. cons ~+4.5% (FY2026 vs $4.6B base)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net flow trajectory / durability of stabilization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide Q2 net outflow ~-$6.5B (known) vs. cons ~-$12B (Q2/2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-rate/mix-shift trajectory commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide exit rate ~38.0 bps vs. cons ~38.5 bps (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "AUM ($1.89T) and flows (-$6.5B) are pre-announced, so the good news is largely banked and the stock has already re-rated +38% off March lows to ~$119, above the ~$97-107 sell-side target band. Even a modest EPS/revenue beat is offset by continued effective-fee-rate compression (mix shift to lower-fee TDF/ETF/SMA) and weak 1-yr performance; out-period math (higher opex accruals on the rally, softer forward fee capture) implies estimates get trimmed rather than raised. Priced-for-perfection setup skews to sell-the-news and a post-print fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}