I'll research TROW (T. Rowe Price) to build a well-grounded earnings preview. Let me start gathering data from multiple angles.Let me read the most recent earnings materials (2026Q1 call and release) and the prior 2025Q2 quarter (the year-ago comparison), plus pull recent AUM data and stock price.I have strong Q1 2026 detail. Now let me pull the stock price trend, recent monthly AUM disclosures/news, and the year-ago Q2 2025 release for comparison.Let me check for recent analyst commentary/estimates and any June 2026 monthly AUM disclosures.Let me get analyst consensus estimates for the Q2 2026 report via web search, and check for TROW's monthly AUM press releases.I found the June 2026 month-end AUM press release. Let me read it and fix the web search.I now have everything I need. Here's the earnings preview.

T. Rowe Price (TROW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report date: Friday, July 31, 2026 · Release 7:00 AM ET, call 8:00–8:45 AM ET Recent price: ~$119 (7/30/2026 close $119.31)

The one-line setup

TROW enters this print with a strong AUM tailwind already banked (a rebound to a record ~$1.89T) and a meaningfully improved flow picture, but with a stock that has run ~38% off its March lows and now trades well above sell-side price targets. The bar is high, and the debate is whether flow stabilization and market-driven AUM growth are enough to justify a re-rating that has already largely happened.

What the Street expects

Adjusted EPS: ~$2.50–2.52, up ~12.5% from the $2.24 posted in Q2 2025 (Zacks consensus $2.52; a separate compiler cited $2.50 diluted).
Revenue: ~$1.92B, up ~11.6% year-over-year.
Note the optical quirk: consensus Q2 EPS (~$2.52) is essentially flat with the $2.52 adjusted EPS TROW just printed in Q1 2026 — so sequential EPS growth is expected to be modest despite a much higher average AUM base.

AUM & flows — the most important read (much already disclosed)

TROW pre-announces month-end AUM, so a lot of the quarter is already known:

June month-end AUM: $1.893 trillion, up sharply from $1.71T at 3/31/2026 and $1.68T a year ago — driven overwhelmingly by the Q2 market rally (S&P recovered from March's Iran-conflict/energy-spike selloff to new highs).
Q2 net outflows: just $6.5B (including $0.5B of manager-driven distributions), and June alone saw +$0.8B of net inflows (helped by a large subadvised equity win). That is a major improvement versus:
Q1 2026: −$13.7B
Q2 2025: −$14.9B
Composition (6/30/2026): Equity $919B · Fixed income/MM $222B · Multi-asset $690B · Alternatives $62B · Target-date portfolios $622B.

Why it matters: The multi-quarter narrative has been "outflows are narrowing." A −$6.5B quarter is the cleanest evidence yet of stabilization. The key call detail to watch: whether U.S. growth-equity / mutual-fund outflows are still moderating, offset by continued inflows into target-date (blend/hybrid), fixed income, ETFs, SMAs, and alternatives.

Watch items on the call

1. Effective fee rate compression. This is the structural offset to AUM growth. The fee rate ex-performance fees fell to 38.4 bps in Q1 2026, down from 39.6 bps in Q2 2025 and 40.0 bps in Q1 2025. Mix shift toward lower-fee vehicles (target-date blend, trust/SMA, ETFs) and out of higher-fee active equity keeps pressuring it. Higher-fee equity's rebound in market value could modestly cushion the rate; watch the exit rate and any guidance.

2. Average AUM vs. period-end. Ending AUM jumped, but revenue keys off average AUM. Q1 average was $1.776T; with April recovering and May/June near $1.89T, Q2 average should be materially higher QoQ and up double digits YoY (Q2 2025 average was $1.589T) — the engine behind the ~11.6% revenue growth expectation.

3. Expenses. Management reiterated FY2026 adjusted operating expense (ex-carried interest) growth of +3% to +6% over 2025's $4.6B base, and Q1 came in light. Two swing factors this quarter: (a) the market rally lifts comp accruals and AUM-linked distribution costs; (b) deferred-comp mark-to-market noise (offset in non-operating). Watch for any narrowing of the expense guide and continued benefit from the restructuring/expense-management program (headcount was down ~7% YoY to 7,507 at 3/31).

4. Growth-initiative traction. TROW is pushing hard on newer vehicles: - ETFs: surpassed $25B AUM across 32 ETFs, with $2.8B of Q1 net inflows; European ETF launch and mutual-fund-to-ETF conversions/share classes under exploration. In July they launched TKNZ, billed as the first actively managed multi-token spot crypto ETF. - SMAs: ~$17B AUM. - Alternatives (OHA): ~$112B AUM; wealth products OCREDIT (non-traded BDC) and the new OFLEX interval fund; watch for commentary on private-credit "AI-disruption"/BDC-redemption concerns that rattled the group. - Partnerships: Goldman Sachs collaboration (interval fund + target-date series) and First Abu Dhabi Bank both targeted for mid-2026 launch — updates likely.

5. Capital return & the balance sheet. TROW raised its dividend for a 40th consecutive year to $1.30/quarter, and accelerated buybacks in Q1 ($340M repurchased; share count down to 214.9M at 3/31 from 221.1M at YE'25), signaling management sees value in the stock. With $4.1B of cash/discretionary investments, watch for continued elevated buybacks and any M&A signaling in alternatives.

6. Performance fees & investment performance. Long-term (3/10-yr) asset-weighted performance remains solid, but 1-year performance is weak (only ~21% of equity AUM and 8% of target-date AUM beat peers on a 1-yr basis at Q1) — a headwind for future flows if it persists, though the most recent quarter showed a sharp target-date rebound (86% outperforming).

Positioning & risk into the print

Stock has already re-rated. TROW troughed near $86 in mid-March and closed at ~$119 on 7/30 — roughly +38%. It has notably decoupled from BLK, which is roughly flat over the same span.
Sell-side is skeptical. Consensus rating clusters at Hold/Sell with price targets in the ~$97–$107 range (e.g., TD Cowen trimmed to $107 on 7/20) — i.e., the shares trade above the average target. Some firms have been trimming targets on slower revenue-growth / margin assumptions.
Implication: With good news (flow stabilization, AUM at records) largely known and expectations elevated after the rally, the risk/reward skews toward "prove it." The likely swing factors for the stock reaction: (a) whether flows actually turned positive/near-flat and management sounds confident it's durable, (b) the fee-rate trajectory, and (c) any expense-guide revision. A clean flow number plus reaffirmed/lowered expense growth would support the move; continued core-equity bleeding or accelerating fee compression could pressure a stock that's priced for improvement.

Quick reference — recent trend

Metric	Q2 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026 (consensus/known)
Adjusted diluted EPS	$2.24	$2.52	~$2.50–2.52e
Net revenue	$1.72B	$1.86B	~$1.92Be
Ending AUM	$1.68T	$1.71T	$1.89T (actual)
Net flows	−$14.9B	−$13.7B	−$6.5B (actual)
Fee rate (ex-perf, bps)	39.6	38.4	watch

Sources: TROW Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings releases and Q1 2026 call transcript; TROW June 2026 month-end AUM press release (7/13/2026); company ETF commentary (July 2026); market data through 7/30/2026; and third-party consensus/rating aggregators via web search.