{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.58 vs. cons $2.51",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.96B vs. cons $1.92B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Effective Fee Rate (ex. performance fees, bps)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~37.9bps vs. cons 38.4bps",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Operating Expense Growth (ex. carried interest)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3%-6% vs. cons 3%-6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Effective Tax Rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~23.5%-24.5% vs. cons 23.0%-26.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Client Flows / Organic Growth Commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-1.5% organic decline vs. cons -1.0% implied (Q3 2026 trajectory)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.6,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "AUM/flows already pre-announced so the EPS/revenue beat is largely priced in after the stock's sharp run to 52-week highs (+~14% YTD); the June AUM print itself already triggered a negative reaction on outflow optics. Even with a clean EPS beat driven by market-appreciation-lifted average AUM, continued effective-fee-rate compression (mix shift to trusts/SMAs/target-date blend) implies analysts will trim out-quarter revenue/EPS estimates, and persistent active-equity mutual fund redemptions keep the organic growth debate unresolved \u2014 a 'beat but quality of beat questioned' setup that typically fades over the following days as estimate revisions catch down to the softer fee-rate/flow mix rather than the AUM beat.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}