TSN Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TSN Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.04 vs. cons $0.99 MEDIUM
TSN Report Chicken adj. operating income BEAT pred ~$500M vs. cons ~$460M MEDIUM
TSN Report Beef adj. operating income (loss) MISS pred ~$(150)M vs. cons ~$(110)M MEDIUM
TSN Guide FY26 total adjusted operating income BETTER guide ~$2.30-2.50B vs. cons ~$2.35B (FY26) LOW
TSN Guide FY26 Chicken segment guide BETTER guide ~$2.00-2.15B vs. cons ~$1.98B (FY26) MEDIUM
TSN Guide FY26 Beef segment loss guide LOWER guide ~$(500)M-$(400)M vs. cons ~$(420)M (FY26) MEDIUM
TSN Guide FY27 Beef framing (Mexico border reopening/herd rebuild) UNKNOWN guide benefit ~FY27+ vs. cons ~0 modeled in FY26 (FY27) LOW
TSN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% LOW
TSN Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (FADE) A likely EPS beat led by Chicken/Prepared drives an initial pop, but the out-period math is unforgiving: FY26 guide implies an aggressive back-half (much smaller 2H beef loss, Q4-heavy chicken), the Mexico cattle-border reopening (~Aug 24) is too late to help the June quarter or FY26, and consensus revisions have been drifting down. With sentiment neutral/'show-me' and the pre-print fade (-4.4% on 7/31 after the border pop), a deeper Beef loss plus cautious FY27 framing pull estimates and the stock back down after Day 1. MEDIUM