TSN Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker	Report or Guide	KPI	Prediction	Answer	Confidence
TSN	Report	Adjusted EPS (Q3 FY26)	BEAT	pred ~$1.03 vs. cons $1.00	MEDIUM
TSN	Report	Total Revenue (Q3 FY26)	IN-LINE	pred ~$14.15B vs. cons $14.07B	MEDIUM
TSN	Report	Chicken Segment Adjusted Operating Income (Q3 FY26)	BEAT	pred ~$515M vs. cons $503M	MEDIUM
TSN	Guide	FY26 Total Company Adjusted Operating Income guide	BETTER	guide ~$2.35B vs. cons $2.3B (FY2026, current midpoint of $2.2B-$2.4B range)	MEDIUM
TSN	Guide	FY26 Beef Segment Adjusted Operating Loss guide	LOWER	guide ~$(450)M vs. cons $(425)M (FY2026, current midpoint of $(500)M-$(350)M range)	MEDIUM
TSN	Guide	FY26 Chicken Segment Adjusted Operating Income guide	BETTER	guide ~$2.05B vs. cons $1.975B (FY2026, current midpoint of $1.9B-$2.05B range)	MEDIUM
TSN	Guide	FY26 Revenue Growth guide	UNCHANGED	guide ~3% vs. cons 3% (FY2026, current 2%-4% range midpoint)	MEDIUM
TSN	Return	Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500)	+2.5%	—	MEDIUM
TSN	Return	5-day cumulative residual	+1.0% (FADE)	H1 FY26 Beef adjusted loss already totals ~$(345)M against a full-year guide of $(350)M-$(500)M, meaning H2 must show a dramatic sequential improvement (~$(80)-155)M combined for Q3+Q4) that likely isn't credible until the just-announced Mexican cattle resumption (07/27) actually flows through supply in Q4/FY27 - so even a Q3 EPS/Chicken beat leaves the implicit Q4 Beef bar elevated and FY27 read-through unresolved. Layer on Pilgrim's Pride's Q2 chicken EBITDA miss (-660bps margin) as a negative peer read-through on chicken pricing, a 30-day consensus EPS cut (from $1.06 to $1.00) still not fully reversed, and a broader market backdrop rotating hard into AI/mega-cap tech (MSFT/AMZN dominating flows) away from defensive staples - all of which argue for an initial relief pop on the beat that partially fades over the week as investors focus on the unresolved Beef trajectory and Donnie King's final call/leadership handoff uncertainty rather than sustaining a durable re-rating.	MEDIUM