TT Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TT Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$4.31 vs. cons $4.27 MEDIUM
TT Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$6.30B vs. cons $6.20B MEDIUM
TT Report Enterprise Adjusted Operating Margin / Incremental Leverage IN-LINE pred ~24.0% incremental leverage vs. cons ~25% (mid-20s guided) MEDIUM
TT Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$14.90-$15.10 vs. cons $14.85 (FY2026) MEDIUM
TT Guide FY2026 Organic Revenue Growth guidance BETTER guide ~7-8% vs. cons ~7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
TT Guide Tariff/Inflation net cost headwind (enterprise points) UNCHANGED guide ~2.0-2.2 pts vs. cons ~2.0 pts (FY2026) LOW
TT Guide Residential segment outlook (revenue growth) UNCHANGED guide ~flat to +low-single-digit vs. cons flat (FY2026) LOW
TT Guide Q3 2026 organic revenue growth guide BETTER guide ~8-9% vs. cons ~7.5% (Q3 2026) LOW
TT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
TT Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) TT's backlog ($10.7B, +30% YoY) and three straight quarters of >100% Applied bookings growth give visibility into H2/FY revenue acceleration that a beat-and-raise merely confirms rather than surprises, but the magnitude of the FY EPS raise (following the established quarterly cadence of raising ~$0.10-0.20) combined with corroborating peer prints (CARR, JCI beat/raise) should support sell-side estimate revisions upward over the following days rather than a snap-back fade. The main fade risk (elevated tariff/inflation cost creep already flagged) is a known item, limiting negative surprise, so net drift should continue in the direction of the initial reaction, tempered versus a full follow-through by residential softness (Lennox read-through) and tough Transport comps capping enthusiasm. MEDIUM